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Fragilities in the U.S. Treasury Market: Lessons from the “Flash Rally” of October 15, 2014

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Bouveret
  • Mr. Peter Breuer
  • Ms. Yingyuan Chen
  • David Jones
  • Tsuyoshi Sasaki

Abstract

Changes in the structure of the U.S. Treasury market over recent years may have increased risks to financial stability. Traditional market makers have changed their liquidity provision by increasingly switching from risk warehousing to risk distribution, and a new breed of market maker has emerged with the rise of electronic trading. The “flash rally” of October 15, 2014 provides a clear example of how those risks can materialize. Based on an in-depth analysis of the event—complementing the authorities’ work—we suggest i) providing incentives for liquidity provision, ii) improving market safeguards, and iii) enhancing the regulation of the Treasury market.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Bouveret & Mr. Peter Breuer & Ms. Yingyuan Chen & David Jones & Tsuyoshi Sasaki, 2015. "Fragilities in the U.S. Treasury Market: Lessons from the “Flash Rally” of October 15, 2014," IMF Working Papers 2015/222, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael J. Barclay & Terrence Hendershott & Kenneth Kotz, 2006. "Automation versus Intermediation: Evidence from Treasuries Going Off the Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2395-2414, October.
    2. Venkataraman, Kumar & Waisburd, Andrew C., 2007. "The Value of the Designated Market Maker," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 735-758, September.
    3. Hasbrouck, Joel & Saar, Gideon, 2013. "Low-latency trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 646-679.
    4. George Jiang & Ingrid Lo & Giorgio Valente, 2014. "High-Frequency Trading around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Staff Working Papers 14-56, Bank of Canada.
    5. Benos, Evangelos & Wetherilt, Anne, 2012. "The role of designated market makers in the new trading landscape," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(4), pages 343-353.
    6. Katya Malinova & Andreas Park, 2015. "Subsidizing Liquidity: The Impact of Make/Take Fees on Market Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 509-536, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Nicola & Webber, Lewis & Noss, Joseph & Beale, Daniel & Crowley-Reidy, Liam, 2015. "Financial Stability Paper 34: The resilience of financial market liquidity," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 34, Bank of England.
    2. Fullwood, Jonathan & Massacci, Daniele, 2018. "Liquidity resilience in the UK gilt futures market: evidence from the order book," Bank of England working papers 744, Bank of England.
    3. Di Gangi, Domenico & Lazarov, Vladimir & Mankodi, Aakash & Silvestri, Laura, 2022. "Links between government bond and futures markets: dealer-client relationships and price discovery in the UK," Bank of England working papers 991, Bank of England.
    4. Carmen Broto & Matías Lamas, 2016. "Measuring market liquidity in us fixed income markets: a new synthetic indicator," Working Papers 1608, Banco de España.

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