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China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?

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  • Wojciech Maliszewski
  • Ms. Longmei Zhang

Abstract

The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the ‘finance-neutral’ gap—our measure of the financial cycle—is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the “Asia Tigers” and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojciech Maliszewski & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2015. "China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?," IMF Working Papers 2015/113, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2022. "Trajectories to high income: Comparing the growth dynamics in China, South Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 492-511.
    2. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2020. "Trajectories to high income: comparing the growth dynamics in China, Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 16/2020, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    3. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    4. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.

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