IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2015-012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revisiting the Concept of Dollarization: The Global Financial Crisis and Dollarization in Low-Income Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Miss Nkunde Mwase
  • Mr. Francis Y Kumah

Abstract

The economic literature has examined deposit dollarization in nominal terms, typically focusing on the ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money. However, while private agent demand for foreign currency may remain unchanged in foreign currency terms, there could be large fluctuations in the dollarization ratio simply due to exchange rate movements. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring dollarization that removes these exchange rate effects, and demonstrates that beyond the variance of inflation and depreciation, the level of inflation and size of depreciation also matter for dollarization. While dollarization in nominal terms surged during the recent global financial crisis, there was a downward trend in real terms. Employing a set of econometric estimators, this paper investigates whether “real” dollarization during 2006–09 was associated with the crisis, and the role of initial macroeconomic conditions, quality of institutions, risk aversion, and prudential measures. We find that exchange rate appreciation and reductions in sovereign risk do moderate dollarization; but the results for global volatility have low statistical significance, perhaps because global shocks tend to preserve, to a large extent, relative attractiveness of foreign assets. Nonetheless, estimated impulse-response functions point to a large but short-lived positive impact of global volatility on dollarization, which could reflect economic agents heightened concerns about spillover effects of global uncertainty on the domestic economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Miss Nkunde Mwase & Mr. Francis Y Kumah, 2015. "Revisiting the Concept of Dollarization: The Global Financial Crisis and Dollarization in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/012, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42616
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    2. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-272, January.
    3. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 883-913.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-625, June.
    5. Mr. Miguel A Savastano, 1996. "Dollarization in Latin America: Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 1996/004, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Robert Rennhack & Mr. Masahiro Nozaki, 2006. "Financial Dollarization in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2006/007, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    8. Joshua Aizenman & Kenneth M. Kletzer & Brian Pinto, 2005. "Sargent-Wallace meets Krugman-Flood-Garber, or: why sovereign debt swaps do not avert macroeconomic crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 343-367, April.
    9. Alain Ize & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Financial De-Dollarization: Is It for Real?," Business School Working Papers isitforreal, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    10. Basso, Henrique S. & Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Jurgilas, Marius, 2011. "Financial dollarization: The role of foreign-owned banks and interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 794-806, April.
    11. Honig, Adam, 2009. "Dollarization, exchange rate regimes and government quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 198-214, March.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-51, May.
    13. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:280-304 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Mr. G. Terrier & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos & Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Man-Keung Tang & Miss M, 2011. "Policy Instruments to Lean Against the Wind in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2011/159, International Monetary Fund.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 1989. "Credibility and Nominal Debt: Exploring the Role of Maturity in Managing Inflation," IMF Working Papers 1989/073, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Antonio Doblas‐Madrid, 2009. "Fiscal Trends and Self‐Fulfilling Crises," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 187-204, February.
    17. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2009. "Globalized banks: lending to emerging markets in the crisis," Staff Reports 377, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Contreras, Alex & Quispe,Zenón & Regalado, Fernando & Martínez, Martín, 2017. "Dolarización real en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 33, pages 43-55.
    2. Roshen Fernando, 2020. "Global impact of loss of confidence in Asian emerging markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1907-1927, July.
    3. Sami Ben Naceur & Amr Hosny & Gregory Hadjian, 2019. "How to de-dollarize financial systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1979-1999, June.
    4. Alex Contreras & Zenón Quispe & Fernando Regalado, 2017. "Real dollarization and monetary policy in Peru," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Angola: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/302, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Bošnjak Mile & Kordić Gordana & Bilas Vlatka, 2018. "Determinants Of Financial Euroisation In A Small Open Economy: The Case Of Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 63(218), pages 9-22, July – Se.
    7. Skylar Brooks, 2021. "Revisiting the Monetary Sovereignty Rationale for CBDCs," Discussion Papers 2021-16, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ajide, Kazeem B. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2019. "Dollarization and the “unbundling” of globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 398-409.
    2. Kazeem B. Ajide & Ibrahim D. Raheem & Simplice A. Asongu, 2018. "Dollarization and the “Unbundling†of Globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," AFEA Working Papers 18/029, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA).
    3. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    4. repec:idb:brikps:78869 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.
    6. Vieira, Fabrício A.C. & Holland, Márcio & Resende, Marco F., 2012. "Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1695-1714.
    7. Alain Ize & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Financial De-Dollarization: Is It for Real?," Business School Working Papers isitforreal, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    8. Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2010. "Financial Dollarization and European Union Membership," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 257-282, August.
    9. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    10. Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister & Mr. Jarkko Turunen & Malin Gardberg, 2018. "Dollarization and Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 2018/200, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Institutions and financial dollarization: Indirect effects based on a policy experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 405-410.
    12. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "The Dynamics of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries: Evidence from Threshold VAR," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 66-83.
    13. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2015. "Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 200, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    14. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Financial Dollarization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 238, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    16. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    18. Hail Park & Jong Chil Son, 2022. "Dollarization, inflation and foreign exchange markets: A cross‐country analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2724-2736, July.
    19. Erick W. Rengifo & Emre Ozsoz & Mustapha A. Akinkunmi & Eduardo Court, 2013. "Bank Regulation in Dollarized Economies: The Case of Turkey," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(4), pages 1-17, November.
    20. Nakatani, Ryota, 2017. "Structural vulnerability and resilience to currency crisis: Foreign currency debt versus export," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-143.
    21. Olivier Jeanne & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The International Lender of Last Resort. How Large Is Large Enough?," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 89-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.