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Revisiting the Concept of Dollarization: The Global Financial Crisis and Dollarization in Low-Income Countries

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  • Miss Nkunde Mwase
  • Mr. Francis Y Kumah

Abstract

The economic literature has examined deposit dollarization in nominal terms, typically focusing on the ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money. However, while private agent demand for foreign currency may remain unchanged in foreign currency terms, there could be large fluctuations in the dollarization ratio simply due to exchange rate movements. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring dollarization that removes these exchange rate effects, and demonstrates that beyond the variance of inflation and depreciation, the level of inflation and size of depreciation also matter for dollarization. While dollarization in nominal terms surged during the recent global financial crisis, there was a downward trend in real terms. Employing a set of econometric estimators, this paper investigates whether “real” dollarization during 2006–09 was associated with the crisis, and the role of initial macroeconomic conditions, quality of institutions, risk aversion, and prudential measures. We find that exchange rate appreciation and reductions in sovereign risk do moderate dollarization; but the results for global volatility have low statistical significance, perhaps because global shocks tend to preserve, to a large extent, relative attractiveness of foreign assets. Nonetheless, estimated impulse-response functions point to a large but short-lived positive impact of global volatility on dollarization, which could reflect economic agents heightened concerns about spillover effects of global uncertainty on the domestic economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Miss Nkunde Mwase & Mr. Francis Y Kumah, 2015. "Revisiting the Concept of Dollarization: The Global Financial Crisis and Dollarization in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/012, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/012
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    2. Roshen Fernando, 2020. "Global impact of loss of confidence in Asian emerging markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1907-1927, July.
    3. Alex Contreras & Zenón Quispe & Fernando Regalado, 2017. "Real dollarization and monetary policy in Peru," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Angola: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/302, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Skylar Brooks, 2021. "Revisiting the Monetary Sovereignty Rationale for CBDCs," Discussion Papers 2021-16, Bank of Canada.
    6. Sami Ben Naceur & Amr Hosny & Gregory Hadjian, 2019. "How to de-dollarize financial systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1979-1999, June.
    7. Bošnjak Mile & Kordić Gordana & Bilas Vlatka, 2018. "Determinants Of Financial Euroisation In A Small Open Economy: The Case Of Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 63(218), pages 9-22, July – Se.

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