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Fiscal Trends and Self‐Fulfilling Crises

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  • Antonio Doblas‐Madrid

Abstract

This paper develops a second‐generation currency crisis model with endogenously changing fundamentals. Previous second‐generation models are static, e.g. Obstfeld (1994), or dynamic with exogenous paths of fundamentals, e.g. Obstfeld (1986). In our model, the government weighs the disutility of making fundamentals consistent with a peg against a penalty for floating. If the former dominates, the government runs expansionary policies, precipitating a crisis. For some parameters, self‐fulfilling speculation affects when the crisis happens, but not whether it happens. For other values, there are “purely self‐fulfilling” crises, where a peg that could have survived forever collapses if attacked in the first few periods.

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  • Antonio Doblas‐Madrid, 2009. "Fiscal Trends and Self‐Fulfilling Crises," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 187-204, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:17:y:2009:i:1:p:187-204
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00784.x
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    2. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    3. Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2018. "Inflation rate of 14–16% is fair for the sub-Saharan African dollarization," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 779-794, October.
    4. Kazeem B. Ajide & Ibrahim D. Raheem & Simplice A. Asongu, 2018. "Dollarization and the “Unbundling†of Globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," AFEA Working Papers 18/029, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA).
    5. Ajide, Kazeem B. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2019. "Dollarization and the “unbundling” of globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 398-409.
    6. Miss Nkunde Mwase & Mr. Francis Y Kumah, 2015. "Revisiting the Concept of Dollarization: The Global Financial Crisis and Dollarization in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/012, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Simplice Asongu & Ibrahim Raheem & Venessa Tchamyou, 2018. "Information asymmetry and financial dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(2), pages 231-249, June.

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