IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2014-175.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ales Bulir
  • Mr. Martin Cihak
  • Mr. David-Jan Jansen

Abstract

We study whether clarity of central bank inflation reports affects return volatility in financial markets. We measure clarity of reports by the Czech National Bank, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and Sveriges Riksbank using the Flesch-Kincaid grade level, a standard readability measure. We find some evidence, mainly for the euro area, of a negative relationship between clarity and market volatility prior to and during the early stage of the global financial crisis. As the crisis unfolded, there is no longer robust evidence of a negative connection. We conclude that reducing noise using clear reports is possible but not without challenges, especially in times of crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ales Bulir & Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. David-Jan Jansen, 2014. "Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2014/175, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/175
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42361
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    3. van der Cruijsen, Carin A.B. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Hoogduin, Lex H., 2010. "Optimal central bank transparency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1482-1507, December.
    4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    5. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 41-58, April.
    6. Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas, 2013. "Does uncertainty reduce growth? Using disasters as natural experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121906, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin & Hui Tong, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 453-455, March.
    8. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Comment: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 448-452, March.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    10. Dubofsky, David A, 1991. "Volatility Increases Subsequent to NYSE and AMEX Stock Splits," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 421-431, March.
    11. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    12. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2010. "Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1014-1024, December.
    13. Michael Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2011. "What matters when? The impact of ECB communication on financial market expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4289-4309.
    14. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2013. "Dispersed communication by central bank committees and the predictability of monetary policy decisions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 223-244, October.
    15. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, March.
    17. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    18. Matthew C. Clayton & Jay C. Hartzell & Joshua Rosenberg, 2005. "The Impact of CEO Turnover on Equity Volatility," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1779-1808, September.
    19. Richhild Moessner & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2014. "The effect of the zero lower bound, forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy on interest rate sensitivity to economic news in Sweden," DNB Working Papers 413, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    20. David‐Jan Jansen, 2011. "Does The Clarity Of Central Bank Communication Affect Volatility In Financial Markets? Evidence From Humphrey‐Hawkins Testimonies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 494-509, October.
    21. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    22. Man-Keung Tang & Mr. Xiangrong Yu, 2011. "Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 2011/209, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Pierre L. Siklos, 2013. "The Global Financial Crisis and the Language of Central Banking: Central Bank Guidance in Good Times and in Bad," CAMA Working Papers 2013-58, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    24. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 78-88, September.
    25. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
    26. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vincent Choon-Seng Lim, 2017. "Press Releases and MPC Minutes Are They One And The Same?," Working Papers wp23, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    2. Mr. Marc C Dobler & Mr. Simon T Gray & Diarmuid Murphy & Bozena Radzewicz-Bak, 2016. "The Lender of Last Resort Function after the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2016/010, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    4. Ferrara, Federico Maria & Angino, Siria, 2022. "Does clarity make central banks more engaging? Lessons from ECB communications," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. David Bholat & Stephen Hans & Pedro Santos & Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, 2015. "Text mining for central banks," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 33, April.
    6. Bholat, David & Broughton, Nida & Parker, Alice & Ter Meer, Janna & Walczak, Eryk, 2018. "Enhancing central bank communications with behavioural insights," Bank of England working papers 750, Bank of England.
    7. Smales, L.A. & Apergis, N., 2017. "Understanding the impact of monetary policy announcements: The importance of language and surprises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 33-50.
    8. Bholat, David & Broughton, Nida & Ter Meer, Janna & Walczak, Eryk, 2019. "Enhancing central bank communications using simple and relatable information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-15.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ales Bulir & Martin Cihak & David-Jan Jansen, 2018. "Does the Clarity of Monetary Policy Reports Reduce Volatility in Financial Markets?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(1), pages 2-17, February.
    2. Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. David-Jan Jansen & Mr. Ales Bulir, 2014. "Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2014/175, International Monetary Fund.
    3. David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Has the Clarity of Humphrey-Hawkins Testimonies Affected Volatility in Financial Markets?," DNB Working Papers 185, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra, 2016. "Forward Guidance under Disagreement - Evidence from the Fed’s dot projections," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145768, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram, 2015. "Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?," Working Paper Series 1808, European Central Bank.
    7. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2010. "Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1014-1024, December.
    9. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 222-234.
    10. Alexander Jung & Patrick Kuehl, 2021. "Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 298-321, July.
    11. Shambaugh, George E. & Shen, Elaine B., 2018. "A clear advantage: The benefits of transparency to crisis recovery," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 391-416.
    12. Jonne Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu, 2022. "Who Should You Listen to in a Crisis? Differences in Communication of Central Bank Policymakers," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(3), pages 33-57.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 218-231.
    15. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," Working Papers hal-03403256, HAL.
    16. Hubert Paul, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-41, January.
    17. Bennani, Hamza & Fanta, Nicolas & Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    18. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "Central bank transparency, the accuracy of professional forecasts, and interest rate volatility," Staff Reports 496, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2015. "Central bank communication in the financial crisis: Evidence from a survey of financial market participants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 166-181.
    22. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca Nicolay, 2015. "Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1142-1158, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.