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How can Korea Boost Potential Output to Ensure Continued Income Convergence?

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  • Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra
  • Ms. Longmei Zhang

Abstract

Korea’s rapid growth has slowed in recent years, suggesting lower potential growth. This paper uses an array of techniques, including statistical filters, a multivariate model and the production function, to estimate Korea’s potential growth. The main finding is that trend growth has fallen from around 4¾ percent during 2000-07 to around 3¼ -3½ percent by 2011-12. Absent reforms, it is projected to fall further to around 2 percent by 2025, primarily due to declining working-age population. However, Korea’s potential growth can be maintained at a higher level by putting in place a comprehensive structural reform agenda, including increased female and youth labor force participation, liberalization of product and labor market regulation. Staff simulations suggest that such reforms could lift potential growth by around 1¼ percentage point over the next decade, maintaining potential growth at around 3¼ percent, counteracting the effect of population aging, and enabling Korea to continue to converge to income levels of the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2014. "How can Korea Boost Potential Output to Ensure Continued Income Convergence?," IMF Working Papers 2014/054, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Bassanini & Luca Nunziata & Danielle Venn, 2009. "Job protection legislation and productivity growth in OECD countries [Appropriate growth policy: a unifying framework]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(58), pages 349-402.
    2. Renaud Bourlès & Gilbert Cette & Jimmy Lopez & Jacques Mairesse & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2013. "Do Product Market Regulations In Upstream Sectors Curb Productivity Growth? Panel Data Evidence For OECD Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1750-1768, December.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter," IMF Working Papers 2010/285, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Romain Bouis & Romain Duval, 2011. "Raising Potential Growth After the Crisis: A Quantitative Assessment of the Potential Gains from Various Structural Reforms in the OECD Area and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 835, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Jisoo Hwang & Meeyeon Kim & Tae-Jeong Kim, 2014. "Strategies for Reforming Korea's Labor Market to Foster Growth," Working Papers 2014-25, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    2. Ms. Edda Zoli & Hou Wang & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2018. "A New Strategy for Korea’s Fiscal Policy in a Low Growth Environment," IMF Working Papers 2018/091, International Monetary Fund.

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