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Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises

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  • Matias Costa Navajas
  • Aaron Thegeya

Abstract

The paper tests the effectiveness of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) as harbingers of banking crises, using multivariate logit models to see whether FSIs, broad macroeconomic indicators, and institutional indicators can indeed predict crisis occurrences. The analysis draws upon a data set of homogeneous indicators comparable across countries over the period 2005 to 2012, leveraging the IMF’s FSI database. Results indicate significant correlation between some FSIs and the occurrence of systemic banking crises, and suggest that some indicators are precursors to the occurrence of banking crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Matias Costa Navajas & Aaron Thegeya, 2013. "Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2013/263, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/263
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Robert M Heath & Evrim Bese Goksu, 2016. "G-20 Data Gaps Initiative II: Meeting the Policy Challenge," IMF Working Papers 2016/043, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tarkocin, Coskun & Donduran, Murat, 2024. "Constructing early warning indicators for banks using machine learning models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    3. Paolo Manasse & Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2016. "Danger Zones for Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 360-381, October.
    4. Mikhail Stolbov, 2015. "Anatomy of international banking crises at the onset of the Great Recession," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 553-569, October.
    5. Purificación Parrado-Martínez & Antonio Partal-Ureña & Pilar Gómez Fernández-Aguado, 2016. "Banking Soundness Indicators and Sovereign Risk in Time of Crisis: The Case of the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1172-1193, August.
    6. Gavin Ooft & Monique Thijn-Baank, 2024. "Measuring Financial Stability in Curaçao and Sint Maarten," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(4), pages 1-2.
    7. Fedorova, E. & Mukhin, A. & Dovzhenko, S., 2016. "Modeling Rules of Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation with the Financial Stress Index," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 84-105.
    8. Marcin Pietrzak, 2021. "Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress?," IMF Working Papers 2021/197, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mohammadreza Janvisloo Alizadeh & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi, 2017. "Merton Model and Capital Measurement in Commercial Banks: A Case Study of Selected Emerging Countries in Southeast Asia," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 24(3), pages 169-191, September.
    10. Robert J. Powell & Duc H. Vo, 2020. "A Comprehensive Stability Indicator for Banks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, February.
    11. Petr Pavlík, 2016. "Theoretical backgrounds of modern bank regulation [Teoretické základy současné bankovní regulace]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(2), pages 5-33.
    12. Paola Bongini & Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Paweł Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2018. "In search of a measure of banking sector distress: empirical study of CESEE banking sectors," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 242-257, August.
    13. Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, 2021. "Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics: Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2021/028, International Monetary Fund.

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