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Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

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  • Mr. Francis Vitek

Abstract

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francis Vitek, 2012. "Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach," IMF Working Papers 2012/149, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    2. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2010. "Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 3081, CESifo.
    3. Mr. Jan Vlcek & Mr. Scott Roger, 2012. "Macrofinancial Modeling At Central Banks: Recent Developments and Future Directions," IMF Working Papers 2012/021, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
    5. Mr. Francis Vitek, 2010. "Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach," IMF Working Papers 2010/152, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Francis Vitek, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach," IMF Working Papers 2009/238, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamim Bayoumi & Trung Bui, 2011. "Apocalypse Then: The Evolution of the North Atlantic Economy and the Global Crisis," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 2000s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "German-Central European Supply Chain-Cluster Report: Staff Report, First Background Note, Second Background Note, Third Background Note," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/263, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    4. Mr. Francis Vitek, 2018. "A Closed Form Multivariate Linear Filter," IMF Working Papers 2018/275, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Reserve accumulation and financial crises: From individual protection to systemic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 126-144.
    6. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Francis Vitek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Model Spillovers and Their Discontents," IMF Working Papers 2013/004, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Francis Vitek, 2013. "Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," IMF Working Papers 2013/253, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Francis Vitek, 2013. "Spillovers to and from the Nordic Economies: A Macroeconometric Model Based Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2013/225, International Monetary Fund.

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