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Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries

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  • Mr. Daniel S Kanda

Abstract

For a number of countries - Italy, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland, and France - this paper develops an inter-temporal model that elicits the implied country-preferences over balancing the conflicting objectives of fiscal consolidation and reduction of economic slack. The model suggests that some front-loading of adjustment is desirable, although the extent would vary by country preferences. It also finds that proposed consolidations may prove to be stronger than acceptable, especially if somewhat larger than anticipated fiscal multipliers lead to a sizeable economic deceleration.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Daniel S Kanda, 2011. "Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2011/164, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boris Cournède, 2007. "The Political Economy of Delaying Fiscal Consolidation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 548, OECD Publishing.
    2. Casper van Ewijk & Nick Draper & Harry ter Rele & Ed Westerhout, 2006. "Ageing and the sustainability of Dutch public finances," CPB Special Publication 61.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 912-932, September.
    4. Stéphanie Guichard & Mike Kennedy & Eckhard Wurzel & Christophe André, 2007. "What Promotes Fiscal Consolidation: OECD Country Experiences," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 553, OECD Publishing.
    5. Mr. Nigel A Chalk, 2002. "Structural Balances and All That: Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2002/101, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Casper van Ewijk & Nick Draper & Harry ter Rele & Ed Westerhout, 2006. "Ageing and the sustainability of Dutch public finances," CPB Special Publication 61, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Tamborini, 2014. "Interest-Rate Spread and Public-Debt Dynamics in a Two-Country Monetary-Union Portfolio Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 243-261, April.
    2. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2014. "Chapter 3: Austerity: Hurting but Helping," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 75-90, February.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Suriname: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/341, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Łukasz Rawdanowicz, 2014. "Choosing the pace of fiscal consolidation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2013(1), pages 91-119.
    5. Andersen, Torben M., 2013. "Fiscal policy targeting under imperfect information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-130.
    6. Mr. Daniel S Kanda & Mr. Mario Mansilla, 2014. "Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries: The Case of Suriname," IMF Working Papers 2014/121, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2022. "Debt policies in the aftermath of COVID-19 — The SGP’s debt benchmark revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2020. "Debt rule design in theory and practice: the SGP’s debt benchmark revisited," Working Paper Series 2379, European Central Bank.
    9. Roberto Tamborini, 2013. "The new fiscal rules for the EMU. Threats from heterogeneity and interdependence," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 10(3), pages 415-436, December.
    10. Carmen Marín-González & Diego Martínez-López, 2024. "Fiscal stabilisation, debt sustainability and public spending in subnational governments. The case of the Spanish regions," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2024-02, FEDEA.
    11. Jean-Marc Fournier, 2019. "A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 2019/159, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "Heterogeneous Market Beliefs, Fundamentals and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Eurozone," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82, pages 1153-1176, December.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/288, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Jean-Marc Fournier & Philipp Lieberknecht, 2020. "A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance," IMF Working Papers 2020/033, International Monetary Fund.

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