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Business Cycles in Emerging Markets: The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatile as income for both developed and emerging market economies. The simulation of the model implies that shocks to trend play a less important role than previously documented. Financial frictions improve the ability of the model to match some key business cycle properties of emerging economies. A countercyclical borrowing premium interacts with the nature of durable goods delivering highly volatile consumption and very countercyclical net exports.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Business Cycles in Emerging Markets: The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions," IMF Working Papers 2011/133, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/133
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    2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 244-273, October.
    3. Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Peng, Chi-Lu & Chen, Ming-Chi & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2013. "Wealth effects on the housing markets: Do market liquidity and market states matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 488-495.
    4. Álvarez-Parra, Fernando & Brandao-Marques, Luis & Toledo, Manuel, 2013. "Durable goods, financial frictions, and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 720-736.
    5. Masahiro Kodama, 2013. "External Shocks and High Volatility in Consumption in Low-Income Countries," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 51(3), pages 278-302, September.

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