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Did Export Diversification Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis?

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  • Rafael Romeu
  • Mr. Nelson Camanho da Costa Neto

Abstract

This study considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by assessing three different dimensions of specialization. First, concentration by geographic destination is considered; that is, whether the bulk of exports from a country go to many or few trading partners. Second, industry/sectoral concentration is considered; that is, whether a country’s exports are scattered across many industries and sectors, or concentrated in just a few. Third, product concentration is considered; that is, whether countries produce many products within their export sectors or just a few. The workhorse gravity trade model is adapted with trade diversification as an additional trade cost, and the model solution is empirically tested on a dataset containing over 500 thousand observations for Latin America. Industry and product concentration are found to significantly affect the resilience of Latin American countries’ trade during the global financial crisis - increasing the diversity of both export sectors and export products within sectors by one standard deviation reduces the quarterly decline in exports by approximately 4.7 percent. Diversifying exports across many different trading partners is not found to significantly affect outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Romeu & Mr. Nelson Camanho da Costa Neto, 2011. "Did Export Diversification Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 2011/099, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/099
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jinsoo Lee & Bok-Keun Yu, 2018. "The Effects of Export Diversification on Macroeconomic Stabilization : Evidence from Korea," Working Papers 2018-25, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    3. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    4. Brice Kamguia & Sosson Tadadjeu & Clovis Miamo & Henri Njangang, 2022. "Does foreign aid impede economic complexity in developing countries?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 71-88.
    5. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Development aid and services export diversification," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 125-156, February.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Aid for Trade flows and Poverty Reduction in Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213807, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Semih Karacan & Özge Korkmaz, 2022. "Turkish Exports Before and After the 2001 Financial Crisis: A Panel Gravity Model," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 27-40, February.
    8. Ons Abbes & Pr. Abdessatar Ati & Dr. Fabienne Boudier, 2019. "Specialization of Emerging Countries and Economic Stability," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 200-227, March.
    9. Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2018. "Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 2799-2814, September.
    10. Stefan Pahl & Clara Brandi & Jakob Schwab & Frederik Stender, 2022. "Cling together, swing together: The contagious effects of COVID‐19 on developing countries through global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 539-560, February.
    11. Fabio Gualandri & Aleksandra Kuzior, 2024. "Toward Sustainable Biomanufacturing: A Feasibility Index for Silicon Carbide Production from Rice Waste," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-19, June.
    12. Aadil Nakhoda, 2013. "Bank Competition and Export Diversification," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2013/12, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    13. Ignacio Rosal, 2018. "Power laws in EU country exports," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 311-337, May.
    14. Hinlo, Jennifer E. & Arranguez, Grace Ivy S., 2017. "Export Geographical Diversification and Economic Growth Among ASEAN Countries," MPRA Paper 81333, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong & Somprawin Manprasert, 2012. "Trade concentration and crisis spillover: Case study of transmission of the supprime crisis to Thailand," Working Papers 11212, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    16. Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong & Somprawin Manprasert, 2015. "Trade Diversification and Crisis Transmission: A Case Study of Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 385-408, December.
    17. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Export product diversification and tax performance quality in developing countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 849-876, October.
    18. Ignacio del Rosal, 2019. "Export Diversification And Export Performance By Destination Country," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 58-74, January.
    19. Oubeid Rahmouni, 2020. "The Impact of the Geographical Diversification of Saudi Exports: An Intensive and Extensive Margin Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(10), pages 1077-1087, October.
    20. Pahl, Stefan & Brandi, Clara & Schwab, Jakob & Stender, Frederik, 2020. "Cling together, swing together: The contagious effects of COVID-19 on developing countries through global value chains," IDOS Discussion Papers 21/2020, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    21. Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2017. "Export sophistication: A dynamic panel data approach," Working Papers 980, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    22. Dungey, Mardi & Khan, Faisal & Raghavan, Mala, 2018. "International trade and the transmission of shocks: The case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-121.
    23. Xuefeng, Qian & Yaşar, Mahmut, 2016. "Export Market Diversification and Firm Productivity: Evidence from a Large Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 28-47.
    24. Lee, Jinsoo & Yu, Bok-Keun, 2019. "The Effects of Export Diversification on Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Korea," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 41(1), pages 1-14.
    25. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/249, International Monetary Fund.

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