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Growth from International Capital Flows: The Role of Volatility Regimes

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  • Antu Panini Murshid
  • Mr. Ashoka Mody

Abstract

Recent commentary has downplayed the growth dividend from international financial integration, highlighting the possibly negative correlation between capital inflows and long-run growth. This paper presents new evidence consistent with standard economic theory and a more benign interpretation of cross-border private capital flows. The key observation is that a country’s growth volatility changes over time. With volatility below a threshold, an inflow of foreign capital has promoted growth. However, during periods of volatile growth, more flows have been associated with slower growth. Volatility levels and changes reflect an interaction of domestic production and institutional structures with global factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Antu Panini Murshid & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2011. "Growth from International Capital Flows: The Role of Volatility Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2011/090, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/090
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    3. Shang-Jin Wei & Yi Wu, 2002. "Negative Alchemy? Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 461-506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sebastian Edwards & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2002. "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa02-2, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erauskin, Iñaki, 2013. "The impact of financial openness on the size of utility-enhancing government," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-56.
    2. Brahim Gaies, 2017. "Globalisation Financière, Croissance et effets de seuil : Le Cas des pays en développement Les moins avancés," Working Papers hal-04141645, HAL.
    3. Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2015. "Volatile Capital Flows and Economic Growth: The Role of Macro-prudential Regulation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 215, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    5. Elias A. Udeaja & Nathan Audu, 2023. "Asymmetric Effect of External Debt and Foreign Capital Flows on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Nigeria," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 9(3), pages 345-368, July.
    6. Natalya Ketenci, 2015. "Economic growth and capital flow in European countries in pre and post-crisis periods," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 38(108), pages 163-180, Septiembr.
    7. Karsten Staehr, 2018. "Capital flows and growth dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Samuel Adams & Edem Kwame Mensah Klobodu & Richmond Odartey Lamptey, 2017. "The Effects of Capital Flows on Economic Growth in Senegal," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(2), pages 121-142, May.
    9. Brahim Gaies, 2017. "Globalisation Financière, Croissance et effets de seuil : Le Cas des pays en développement Les moins avancés," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-25, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Ketenci, Natalya, 2017. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Economic Development in the Eurasian Region," MPRA Paper 83780, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    11. Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Volatile capital flows and economic growth: The role of banking supervision," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 77-93.
    12. Söylemez, Arif Orçun & Yılmaz, Ahmet, 2012. "Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal Serbestleşme Döneminde Uluslararası Sermaye Girişi - Büyüme İlişkisi [The Relationship Between the International Capital Flows and Economic Growth After the Financial ," MPRA Paper 52271, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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