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Fiscal Policy During Absorption Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ferhan Salman
  • Miss Gabriela Dobrescu

Abstract

Domestic absorption cycles are relevant in assessment and design of fiscal policies. Our cross-country analysis covers 59 advanced and emerging countries for the 1990-2009 period. We show that ignoring domestic absorption cycles leads to biased fiscal stance indicators, for both advanced and emerging economies, by up to 1.5 percent of GDP. The estimates of fiscal policy reaction functions indicate that absorption booms are associated with pro-cyclical fiscal policy. We tackle the endogeneity problem in reactions functions through stripping the cyclical component of the fiscal aggregates. We also find that simple filtering methods in the computation of absorption gaps perform as better as indirect methods of estimating trade balance gaps and stripping of output gaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ferhan Salman & Miss Gabriela Dobrescu, 2011. "Fiscal Policy During Absorption Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2011/041, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/041
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bénétrix, Agustín S. & Lane, Philip R., 2013. "Fiscal cyclicality and EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
    2. Amable, Bruno & Azizi, Karim, 2014. "Counter-cyclical budget policy across varieties of capitalism," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-9.
    3. Arsic, Milojko & Nojkovic, Aleksandra & Randjelovic, Sasa, 2017. "Determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 367-378.
    4. Miles Workman, 2015. "Estimating the Cyclically- and Absorption-adjusted Fiscal Balance for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/09, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jeroen Hessel, 2014. "Current account imbalances in the Euro area: Competitiveness or financial cycle?," DNB Working Papers 443, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Islam, Roumeen, 2013. "Macroeconomic context and fiscal policy : Europe and Central Asia during 2000-2012," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6621, The World Bank.
    7. Mrs. Nina Budina & Mr. Borja Gracia & Xingwei Hu & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs, 2015. "Recognizing the Bias: Financial Cycles and Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2015/246, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jeroen Hessel, 2019. "Medium-term asymmetric fluctuations and EMU as an optimum currency area," DNB Working Papers 644, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Shijaku, Gerti, 2012. "Sustainability of fiscal policy: the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Sven Langedijk & Aurélien Poissonnier & Edouard Turkisch, 2023. "The impact of macroeconomic developments and imbalances on fiscal outcomes," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-29, June.
    12. Francesco Spadafora & Mr. Emidio Cocozza & Mr. Andrea Colabella, 2011. "The Impact of the Global Crisison South-Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 2011/300, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Agust n S. B n trix & Philip R. Lane, 2015. "Financial Cycles and Fiscal Cycles," Trinity Economics Papers tep0815, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

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