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Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?

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  • Ms. Ana L Fostel
  • Mr. John Geanakoplos

Abstract

The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become volatile in bad times. Together with the old literature this explains pro-cyclical leverage. The result also gives rationale to the pattern of volatility smiles observed in the stock options since 1987. Finally, the paper presents for the first time a dynamic model in which an asset is endogenously traded simultaneously at different margin requirements in equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Ana L Fostel & Mr. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?," IMF Working Papers 2010/206, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. "Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-1366, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 190-225, January.
    2. Augusto Hasman, 2013. "A Critical Review Of Contagion Risk In Banking," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 978-995, December.
    3. Matt Darst & Ehraz Refayet, 2017. "A Model of Endogenous Debt Maturity with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-057, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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