IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2010-196.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Global Liquidity Forecast Asset Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Reginald Darius

Abstract

During the period leading up to the global financial crisis many asset classes registered rapid price increases. This coincided with a significant rise in global liquidity. This paper attempts to determine the extent to which the rise in asset prices was influenced by developments in global liquidity. We confirm that global liquidity had a significant impact on the buildup in house prices; however, the impact on equity prices was limited. In contrast to common perception, we find that the impact of global liquidity declined during the period of the Great Moderation. The paper also examines spillovers from global liquidity to domestic variables and concludes that domestic factors generally played a more significant role in house price appreciation relative to global factors. This contradicts the hypothesis of weakened potency of domestic monetary policy in the presence of increased international liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Reginald Darius, 2010. "Can Global Liquidity Forecast Asset Prices?," IMF Working Papers 2010/196, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24164
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 479-489, March.
    2. Rüffer, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2019. "Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-74.
    2. Fatma Pinar Erdem Kucukbicakci & Etkin Ozen & Ibrahim Unalmis, 2020. "Are Macroprudential Policies Effective Tools to Reduce Credit Growth in Emerging Markets?," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 73-89, June.
    3. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Crude oil prices and liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-38.
    4. Eickmeier, Sandra & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Hofmann, Boris, 2014. "Understanding global liquidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0167 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Asit B Chakraborty & Sanjib Bordoloi, 2013. "International commodity prices – volatility and global liquidity," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 239-258, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    8. Ms. Sally Chen & Mr. Philip Liu & Andrea M. Maechler & Chris Marsh & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs & Mr. Hyun S Shin, 2012. "Exploring the Dynamics of Global Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 2012/246, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Belke, Ansgar H. & Bordon, Ingo G. & Hendricks, Torben W., 2014. "Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The time-varying effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties on commodity market dynamics: A TVP-SVAR-SV analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Ansgar Belke & Ingo G. Bordon & Torben W. Hendricks, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Global Liquidity and Commodity Price Dynamics," Ruhr Economic Papers 0167, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Luca Gattini & Huw Pill & Ludger Schuknecht, 2015. "A global perspective on inflation and propagation channels," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(3), pages 50-76, May.
    13. Goknur Umutlu & Yilmaz Yildız, 2011. "The Effect of Global Liquidity on Macroeconomic Parameters," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 167181-1671, September.
    14. Mesut Turkay, 2018. "Does International Liquidity Matter For G-7 Countries? A PVAR Approach," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, April.
    15. Peter Tillmann, 2017. "Global Liquidity and the Impact on SEACEN Economies," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp100.
    16. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Chinese liquidity increases and the U.S. economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 764-771.
    17. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability," IEER Working Papers 84, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    18. Ács, Attila, 2014. "Pénzintézeti mérlegadatok monetáris politikai újraértelmezése. A brókerkereskedő szervezetek reálgazdasági és likviditási jelentősége [Reconsidering the role of financial institutions balance sheet," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 166-192.
    19. Faia, Ester & Iliopulos, Eleni, 2011. "Financial openness, financial frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1976-1996.
    20. Skrypnik, D., 2014. "The Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing in the United States for Russian Economy. Macroeconometric Analysis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 74-101.
    21. Milani, Fabio, 2012. "Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 204-229, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.