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Inflation in Tajikistan: Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges

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  • Svetlana Vtyurina
  • Fahad Alturki

Abstract

This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Vtyurina & Fahad Alturki, 2010. "Inflation in Tajikistan: Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2010/017, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nair Sultana & Rabiunnesa Koli & Mahamuda Firoj, 2019. "Causal Relationship of Money Supply and Inflation: A Study of Bangladesh," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(1), pages 42-51, January.
    2. Nigina QURBANALIEVA, 2013. "An Empirical Study Of Factors Affecting Inflation In Republic Of Tajikistan," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 231-249.
    3. Frank Hespeler, 2013. "A VECM evaluation of monetary transmission in Uzbekistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 219-253, May.
    4. Okotori, Tonprebofa & Gbalam, Eze, 2020. "CBN monetary policy and inflation nexus in Nigeria: an empirical approach," MPRA Paper 110523, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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