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Modeling Inflation in Georgia

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  • Wojciech Maliszewski

Abstract

The paper explains the behavior of inflation in Georgia in the post-stabilization period. A long-run equation linking prices to money and the exchange rate, as well as a short-run, dynamic equation for inflation are estimated. The inflation equation is stable, points to a dominant role of the exchange rate in the behavior of inflation and shows a low persistence of inflation in Georgia. The equation explains well the behavior of inflation after the Russian crises, when inflation increased sharply but was quickly brought under control, as the National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy tight and the exchange rate stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojciech Maliszewski, 2003. "Modeling Inflation in Georgia," IMF Working Papers 2003/212, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruno, Michael, 1993. "Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286639.
    2. Mr. Jian-Ye Wang, 1999. "The Georgian Hyperinflation and Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 1999/065, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    4. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    5. Choudhry, T., 1998. "Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 355-376, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Svetlana Vtyurina & Fahad Alturki, 2010. "Inflation in Tajikistan: Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2010/017, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Nigina QURBANALIEVA, 2013. "An Empirical Study Of Factors Affecting Inflation In Republic Of Tajikistan," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 231-249.
    3. Dejene Mamo Bekana, 2016. "What Causes Inflation in a Post Communist Economy? Evidence from Ethiopia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 3-46, September.
    4. Koffie Ben Nassar, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar," IMF Working Papers 2005/236, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Giorgi Bakradze & Mr. Andreas Billmeier, 2007. "Inflation Targeting in Georgia: Are We There Yet?," IMF Working Papers 2007/193, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    7. Lena Malesevic-Perovic, 2009. "Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 201-218.
    8. Menji, Sisay, 2008. "Determinants of Recent Inflation in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 29668, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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