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Stress Testing Household Debt in Korea

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  • Ms. Meral Karasulu

Abstract

Korean household debt has reached 148 percent of disposable income, high by emerging market standards. Most of this debt remains at variable rates, shifting the interest rate risk from better diversified financial institutions to households and increasing their sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks. This paper examines the sources of, and risks from, household debt by employing stress tests on household level panel data. Results suggest that a 100-300 bps increase in interest rates could increase distressed household debt household debt by 8½?17 percentage points (ppt). A drop in real estate prices by 10?30 percent could add another 4 ppt to distressed debt. Ongoing transition to amortizing mortgages in 2008?09 presents additional challenges as interest payments on debt are likely to increase further.

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  • Ms. Meral Karasulu, 2008. "Stress Testing Household Debt in Korea," IMF Working Papers 2008/255, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/255
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    Cited by:

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    2. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Brazil: Technical Note on Consumer Credit Growth and Household Financial Stress," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/149, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Athiphat Muthitacharoen, 2016. "Gauging Households’ Debt Tolerance: Evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 23(1), pages 59-74, June.
    4. Mikus Arins & Nadezda Sinenko & Laura Laube, 2014. "Survey-Based Assessment of Household Borrowers' Financial Vulnerability," Discussion Papers 2014/01, Latvijas Banka.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/221, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Ariun-Erdene Bayarjargal, 2017. "Stress testing the household sector in Mongolia," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 24(2), pages 23-52, December.
    7. G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2019. "Household income requirements and financial conditions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1705-1730, November.
    8. Erwin R. Tiongson & Naotaka Sugawara & Victor Sulla & Ashley Taylor & Anna I. Gueorguieva & Victoria Levin & Kalanidhi Subbarao, 2010. "The Crisis Hits Home : Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2396.
    9. Gaston Giordana & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2017. "Household debt burden and financial vulnerability in Luxembourg," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Kwon, Yujin & Park, Sung Y., 2023. "Modeling an early warning system for household debt risk in Korea: A simple deep learning approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Tom Bilston & David Rodgers, 2013. "A Model for Stress Testing Household Lending in Australia," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 27-38, December.
    12. Cifuentes, Rodrigo & Margaretic, Paula & Saavedra, Trinidad, 2020. "Measuring households' financial vulnerabilities from consumer debt: Evidence from Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    13. Giordana, Gastón & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2020. "Stress testing household balance sheets in Luxembourg," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-138.
    14. Felipe Martínez & Rodrigo Cifuentes & Carlos Madeira & Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, 2013. "Measurement of Household Financial Risk with the Survey of Household Finances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 682, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Petr Jakubík, 2011. "Household Balance Sheets and Economic Crisis," Working Papers IES 2011/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
    16. Hosung Jung & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Default Probability by Employment Status in South Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 19(3), pages 62-84, Fall.
    17. Kim, Hyun Jeong & Lee, Dongyeol & Son, Jong Chil & Son, Min Kyu, 2014. "Household indebtedness in Korea: Its causes and sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 59-76.
    18. Athiphat Muthitacharoen, 2015. "Gauging Households’ Debt Tolerance: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 12., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Dec 2015.
    19. Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Kamil Galuscak, 2013. "Household stress tests using microdata," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2012/2013, chapter 0, pages 113-119, Czech National Bank.
    20. Kim, Young Il, 2020. "Examining the liquidity risk in the household sector and the policy implications," KDI Policy Forum 279, Korea Development Institute (KDI).
    21. Balz, Enno, 2011. "Finanzmarktregulierung nach der Finanzmarktkrise: Vorschläge für eine Neuordnung der internationalen Finanzarchitektur," Study / edition der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf, volume 127, number 255, March.

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