IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2008-255.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stress Testing Household Debt in Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Meral Karasulu

Abstract

Korean household debt has reached 148 percent of disposable income, high by emerging market standards. Most of this debt remains at variable rates, shifting the interest rate risk from better diversified financial institutions to households and increasing their sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks. This paper examines the sources of, and risks from, household debt by employing stress tests on household level panel data. Results suggest that a 100-300 bps increase in interest rates could increase distressed household debt household debt by 8½?17 percentage points (ppt). A drop in real estate prices by 10?30 percent could add another 4 ppt to distressed debt. Ongoing transition to amortizing mortgages in 2008?09 presents additional challenges as interest payments on debt are likely to increase further.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Meral Karasulu, 2008. "Stress Testing Household Debt in Korea," IMF Working Papers 2008/255, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/255
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22458
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households," Working Papers 0512, Banco de España.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim A, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Consumption in the United Kingdom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 536-539, August.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Republic of Korea: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/080, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Cox, Donald & Jappelli, Tullio, 1993. "The Effect of Borrowing Constraints on Consumer Liabilities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 197-213, May.
    6. Glenn B. Canner & Arthur B. Kennickell & Charles A. Luckett, 1995. "Household sector borrowing and the burden of debt," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 323-338.
    7. Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Peter Smith & W. N. W. Azman-Saini, 2006. "Testing liquidity constraints in 10 Asian developing countries: an error-correction model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2535-2543.
    8. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 2009. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Miss Gudrun Johnsen & Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 2005/151, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Dean M. Maki, 2000. "The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Consumption: A Cross-Sectional Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(1), pages 183-206.
    12. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Revoltella, Debora & Mucci, Fabio, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Tommaso Monacelli, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Collateralized Household Debt and Borrowing Constraints," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 103-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Gabe de Bondt, 1999. "Credit channels and consumption in Europe: empirical evidence," BIS Working Papers 69, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Guy Debelle, 2004. "Macroeconomic implications of rising household debt," BIS Working Papers 153, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Funke & Rongrong Sun & Linxu Zhu, 2022. "The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro‐level assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 254-276, August.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Brazil: Technical Note on Consumer Credit Growth and Household Financial Stress," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/149, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Athiphat Muthitacharoen, 2016. "Gauging Households’ Debt Tolerance: Evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 23(1), pages 59-74, June.
    4. Cifuentes, Rodrigo & Margaretic, Paula & Saavedra, Trinidad, 2020. "Measuring households' financial vulnerabilities from consumer debt: Evidence from Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    5. Giordana, Gastón & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2020. "Stress testing household balance sheets in Luxembourg," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-138.
    6. Mikus Arins & Nadezda Sinenko & Laura Laube, 2014. "Survey-Based Assessment of Household Borrowers' Financial Vulnerability," Discussion Papers 2014/01, Latvijas Banka.
    7. Felipe Martínez & Rodrigo Cifuentes & Carlos Madeira & Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, 2013. "Measurement of Household Financial Risk with the Survey of Household Finances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 682, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/221, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Petr Jakubík, 2011. "Household Balance Sheets and Economic Crisis," Working Papers IES 2011/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
    10. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Ariun-Erdene Bayarjargal, 2017. "Stress testing the household sector in Mongolia," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 24(2), pages 23-52, December.
    11. Hosung Jung & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Default Probability by Employment Status in South Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 19(3), pages 62-84, Fall.
    12. Gaston Giordana & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2017. "Household debt burden and financial vulnerability in Luxembourg," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Kim, Hyun Jeong & Lee, Dongyeol & Son, Jong Chil & Son, Min Kyu, 2014. "Household indebtedness in Korea: Its causes and sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 59-76.
    14. Athiphat Muthitacharoen, 2015. "Gauging Households’ Debt Tolerance: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 12., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Dec 2015.
    15. repec:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1213/3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2019. "Household income requirements and financial conditions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1705-1730, November.
    17. Erwin R. Tiongson & Naotaka Sugawara & Victor Sulla & Ashley Taylor & Anna I. Gueorguieva & Victoria Levin & Kalanidhi Subbarao, 2010. "The Crisis Hits Home : Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2396.
    18. Kwon, Yujin & Park, Sung Y., 2023. "Modeling an early warning system for household debt risk in Korea: A simple deep learning approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    19. Kim, Young Il, 2020. "Examining the liquidity risk in the household sector and the policy implications," KDI Policy Forum 279, Korea Development Institute (KDI).
    20. Balz, Enno, 2011. "Finanzmarktregulierung nach der Finanzmarktkrise: Vorschläge für eine Neuordnung der internationalen Finanzarchitektur," Study / edition der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf, volume 127, number 255, March.
    21. Tom Bilston & David Rodgers, 2013. "A Model for Stress Testing Household Lending in Australia," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 27-38, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 314, Bank of England.
    2. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the British household panel survey," Working Papers 0511, Banco de España.
    3. Kukk, Merike, 2016. "How did household indebtedness hamper consumption during the recession? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 764-786.
    4. Barbara CAVALLETTI & Corrado LAGAZIO & Daniela VANDONE, 2008. "Il credito al consumo in Italia: benessere economico o fragilita’ finanziaria?," Departmental Working Papers 2008-24, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    5. Rubio, Margarita, 2014. "Housing-market heterogeneity in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-184.
    6. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    7. Cristina OTTAVIANI & Daniela VANDONE, 2010. "Impulsivity and household indebtedness," Departmental Working Papers 2010-28, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    8. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
    9. Thitima Chucherd, 2006. "The Effect of Household Debt on Consumption in Thailand," Working Papers 2006-06, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    10. Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Incomplete Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 161-188.
    11. Brady, Ryan R., 2008. "Structural breaks and consumer credit: Is consumption smoothing finally a reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1246-1268, September.
    12. Rubio, Margarita & Carrasco-Gallego, José A., 2012. "Macroprudential Measures, Housing Markets, and Monetary Policy," Dynare Working Papers 23, CEPREMAP.
    13. Andrew Kish, 2006. "Perspectives on recent trends in consumer debt," Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    14. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    15. Peter S. Yoo, 1996. "Charging up a mountain of debt: households and their credit cards," Working Papers 1996-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland: estimations and simulations with micro data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland.
    17. Bojan Srbinoski & Klime Poposki & Patricia H. Born & Valter Lazzari, 2021. "Life insurance demand and borrowing constraints," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 37-69, March.
    18. Evangelos Charalambakis & Federica Teppa & Athanasios Tsiortas, 2024. "Consumer participation in the credit market during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond," Working Papers 807, DNB.
    19. Rubio, Margarita & Carrasco-Gallego, José A., 2014. "Macroprudential and monetary policies: Implications for financial stability and welfare," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 326-336.
    20. Ke Chen & Miss Mali Chivakul, 2008. "What Drives Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," IMF Working Papers 2008/202, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.