IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2007-167.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU: Reasons, the Role of Adjustment Channels, and Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Emil Stavrev

Abstract

This paper's analysis of growth and inflation dispersions in the euro area reveals several findings. First, these dispersions have declined appreciably since EMU; remaining dispersions are small but persistent, relating mainly to country-specific shocks, not differences in the transmission of common shocks. Second, the different behavior of interest rates just before and after the introduction of the euro has contributed significantly to growth dispersions. However, this has been a one-off shock whose effects, particularly on construction, should be declining over time. Third, financial sector integration could do much more to insure countries against shocks and increase consumption smoothing.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2007. "Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU: Reasons, the Role of Adjustment Channels, and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 2007/167, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21156
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic Factor Models," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 3, pages 25-40, Springer.
    2. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Yosha, Oved & Sørensen, Bent E & Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 4463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    7. Rogers, John H., 2007. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: How close is Europe to the USA?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 785-796, April.
    8. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2003. "Output Smoothing in EMU and OECD: Can We Forego Government Contribution? A Risk Sharing Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 1051, CESifo.
    9. Peter Hoeller & Claude Giorno & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2004. "One Money, One Cycle?: Making Monetary Union a Smoother Ride," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 401, OECD Publishing.
    10. Paul van den Noord, 2004. "Modelling Cyclical Divergence in the Euro Area: The Housing Channel," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 400, OECD Publishing.
    11. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 4463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 66-113.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Crowley, Patrick M., 2008. "One money, several cycles? : evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (ed.), 2008. "Zehn Jahre Euro: Erfahrungen, Erfolge und Herausforderungen," IW-Analysen, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, volume 43, number 43.
    4. Sandra Eickmeier & Katharina Pijnenburg, 2013. "The Global Dimension of Inflation – Evidence from Factor-Augmented Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 103-122, February.
    5. D'Adamo, Gaetano & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2013. "Labor Market Institutions and the Response of Inflation to Macro Shocks in the EU: A Two-Sector Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 7616, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/127, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Ms. Florence Jaumotte, 2012. "Determinants of Inflation in the Euro Area: The Role of Labor and Product Market Institutions," IMF Working Papers 2012/037, International Monetary Fund.
    8. D'Adamo, Gaetano & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2015. "Labour Market Institutions and Inflation Differentials in the EU," IZA Discussion Papers 9389, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Kateøina Šmídková, 2010. "The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 480-500, December.
    10. Andersson, Malin & Masuch, Klaus & Schiffbauer, Marc, 2009. "Determinants of inflation and price level differentials across the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1129, European Central Bank.
    11. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Younes Ben Zaied & Pascal Nguyen, 2018. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Transmission in the Euro Area: A Multivariate Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1590-1602.
    12. Crowley, Patrick M., 2008. "One money, several cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holtemöller, Oliver (Ed.) & Rahn, Jörg (Ed.) & Stierle, Michael H. (Ed.), 2009. "Characteristics of Business Cycles: Have they Changed?," IWH-Sonderhefte 5/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "What Explains Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(01-02), pages 57-67, January.
    3. Pilar Poncela & Filippo Pericoli & Anna Manca & Filippo Michela Nardo, 2016. "Risk Sharing in Europe," JRC Research Reports JRC104621, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2009. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 77-125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009. "Ten Years Of Emu: Convergence, Divergence And New Policy Priorities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 208(1), pages 86-100, April.
    6. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. John Bosco Nnyanzi, 2015. "Financial Openness, Capital Flows and Risk Sharing in Africa," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 51-82, March.
    8. Eleonora Pierucci & Luigi Ventura, 2011. "On international risk sharing and financial globalization: some gloomy evidence," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0124, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    9. Henryk Bak & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2015. "Asymmetric shocks and international risk sharing in the European Monetary Union and the European Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 46(6), pages 523-564.
    10. Bąk Henryk & Maciejewski Sebastian, 2015. "Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 46(1), pages 7-40, June.
    11. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    12. Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/127, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Martín Fuentes, Natalia & Born, Alexandra & Bremus, Franziska & Kastelein, Wieger & Lambert, Claudia, 2023. "A deep dive into the capital channel of risk sharing in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2864, European Central Bank.
    14. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:429-440 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Andrzej Toroj, 2009. "Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area," NBP Working Papers 54, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    16. Ioana Laura Valeanu, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization In The Euro Area," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(3), pages 429-440, September.
    17. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    18. Mirko Abbritti & Andrea Boitani & Mirella Damiani, 2012. "Labour Market Imperfections, "Divine Coincidence" and Volatility of Employment and Inflation," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(1).
    19. Andrea Colciago & Tiziano Ropele & V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 2008. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 591-610, August.
    20. Ernst Juerg Weber, 2006. "Monetary policy in a heterogeneous monetary union: the Australian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2487-2495.
    21. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; financial system;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.