IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2007-114.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Dalia S Hakura

Abstract

This paper establishes that output volatility and the size of output drops have declined across all countries over the past three decades, but remain considerably higher in developing countries than in industrial countries. The paper employs a Bayesian latent dynamic factor model to decompose output growth into global, regional, and country-specific components. The favorable trends in output volatility and large output drops in developing countries are found to result from lower country-specific volatility and more benign country-specific events. Evidence from cross-section regressions over the 1970-2003 period suggest that discretionary fiscal spending volatility, and terms of trade volatility together with exchange rate flexibility are key determinants of volatility and large output drops.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Dalia S Hakura, 2007. "Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/114, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20940
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anonymous, 1960. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 210-211, January.
    2. Anonymous, 1960. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 337-338, April.
    3. Anonymous, 1960. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 468-472, January.
    4. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    5. Anonymous, 1960. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 668-669, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. M. Tariq Majeed & Ayesha Noreen, 2018. "Financial Development and Output Volatility: A Cross-Sectional Panel Data Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 97-141, Jan-June.
    4. Zouhair Aït Benhamou, 2016. "Fluctuations in emerging economies: regional and global factors," Working Papers hal-04141608, HAL.
    5. repec:ocp:rpaper:rp-16/01 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hasan Engin Duran, 2019. "Structural change and output volatility reduction in OECD countries: evidence of the Second Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Regional Employment Volatility In Turkey: Causes And Consequences," Working Papers 2015/06, Turkish Economic Association.
    9. Mahalia Jackman, 2014. "Output Volatility and Tourism Specialization in Small Island Developing States," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(3), pages 527-544, June.
    10. -, 2007. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2006-2007," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1065 edited by Eclac.
    11. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    12. Ms. Dalia S Hakura & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 2009/091, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Zouhair Ait Benhamou, 2016. "Fluctuations in emerging economies: regional and global factors," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Gutiérrez, Mario A., 2007. "Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: growth transitions rather than steady states," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5425, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Limam Ould Mohamed Mahmoud, 2015. "Consumer price index and economic growth: A case study of Mauritania 1990 - 2013," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 16-23, February.
    2. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    3. Akin Serife Nuray, 2012. "Immigration, Fiscal Policy, and Welfare in an Aging Population," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-45, July.
    4. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence From De Facto Policies," IMF Working Papers 2002/155, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Manuel Jr. Pastor, 1988. "Ascenso y caída de la heterodoxia peruana: un modelo simple de del nuevo estructuralismo," Apuntes. Revista de ciencias sociales, Fondo Editorial, Universidad del Pacífico, vol. 15(23), pages 41-71.
    6. Tochukwu Timothy Okoli & Ajibola Rhoda Oluwafisayomi, 2019. "Investigating the Banking Sector Development Transmission Mechanism of Financial Development to Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(2), pages 120-131.
    7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka & Terrones, Marco E., 2020. "Global Recessions," MPRA Paper 98608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mohelsky, Lukas, 2010. "Eastern Europe shifts second gear," MPRA Paper 33148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mar Delgado-Téllez & Esther Gordo & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez, 2022. "The decline in public investment: ``social dominance’’ or too-rigid fiscal rules?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 1123-1136, February.
    10. André Roncaglia De Carvalho & - André M. Marques, 2018. "Economic Development And Inflation: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 41, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of budget deficits and other factors on the ex post real interest rate yield on tax-free municipal bonds in the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1297-1302, October.
    12. Victor Argy & Erich SpitÄller, 1980. "The joint determination of changes in output and prices in the seven main industrial countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(1), pages 87-113, March.
    13. Mérette, Marcel & Georges, Patrick & Dissou, Yazid, 2008. "Liberalizing Foreign Direct Investment Restrictions in Canada: A Multi-Country Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 331743, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Maxwell J. Fry, 1981. "Inflation and economic growth in Pacific Basin developing economies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 8-18.
    15. Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "The gold standard, Bretton Woods and other monetary regimes: a historical appraisal," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 123-191.
    16. Gomes, Pedro & Pouget, Francois, 2008. "Corporate tax competition and the decline of public investment," Working Paper Series 928, European Central Bank.
    17. Nicholas Awuse & Patrick Tandoh-Offin, 2014. "A Quantitative and Theoretical Analysis of Ghana's Internal Migration, Economic Growth and poverty Reduction: A Disaggregated Approach, from 1980 to 2012," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 14-22, June.
    18. Nitzan, Jonathan, 2001. "Regimes of Differential Accumulation: Mergers, Stagflation and the Logic of Globalization," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 226-274.
    19. Oludele Akinloye Akinboade, 2004. "The relationship between budget deficit and interest rates in South Africa: some econometric results," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 289-302.
    20. Koskela, Erkki & Viren, Matti, 1989. "International differences in saving rates and the life cycle hypothesis : A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1489-1498, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.