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Political Price Cycles in Regulated Industries: Theory and Evidence

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  • Mr. Claudio A Paiva
  • Rodrigo Moita

Abstract

This paper develops a model of political regulation in which politicians set the regulated price in order to maximize electoral support by signaling to voters a pro-consumer behavior. Political incentives and welfare constraints interact in the model, yielding an equilibrium in which the real price in a regulated industry may fall in periods immediately preceding an election. The paper also provides empirical support for the theoretical model. Using quarterly data from 32 industrial and developing countries over 1978-2004, we find strong statistical and econometric evidence pointing toward the existence of electoral price cycles in gasoline markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Claudio A Paiva & Rodrigo Moita, 2006. "Political Price Cycles in Regulated Industries: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2006/260, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/260
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. George J. Stigler, 1971. "The Theory of Economic Regulation," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(1), pages 3-21, Spring.
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    6. Spiller, Pablo T, 1990. "Politicians, Interest Groups, and Regulators: A Multiple-Principals Agency Theory of Regulation, or "Let Them Be Bribed."," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 65-101, April.
    7. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    8. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
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    10. Gary S. Becker, 1983. "A Theory of Competition Among Pressure Groups for Political Influence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(3), pages 371-400.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo M. S. Moita & Claudio Paiva, 2013. "Political Price Cycles in Regulated Industries: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 94-121, February.
    2. Englmaier, Florian & Roider, Andreas & Stowasser, Till & Hinreiner, Lisa, 2017. "Power Politics: Electoral Cycles in German Electricity Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168267, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Heyes, Anthony & Kapur, Sandeep, 2011. "Regulatory attitudes and environmental innovation in a model combining internal and external R&D," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 327-340, May.

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