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Fiscal Consolidation in Israel: A Global Fiscal Model Perspective

Author

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  • Mr. Natan P. Epstein
  • Mr. Selim A Elekdag
  • Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia

Abstract

Fiscal consolidation has become an important policy prescription for many emerging market countries (EMCs), particularly for the highly indebted ones. Although prudent fiscal policies tend to reduce vulnerabilities, their implementation is usually postponed. This paper represents, to the best of our knowledge, one of the first attempts in the literature to quantify the costs of delaying fiscal consolidation in an EMC. In particular, using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM), we find that early consolidation through expenditure cuts would result in a substantial increase in Israel's long-term output growth relative to the case with delayed fiscal adjustment. Using an alternative fiscal instrument, we find that delaying tax cuts would result in cumulative real GDP that is much larger than otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia, 2006. "Fiscal Consolidation in Israel: A Global Fiscal Model Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2006/253, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/253
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto Perotti, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Consolidations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 367-394, March.
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    6. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Israel: Report on Observance of Standards and Codes-Fiscal Transparency Module," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/112, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 2010/034, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Israel: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/063, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Mr. Xavier Debrun & Mr. Natan P. Epstein, 2008. "A New Fiscal Rule: Should Israel “Go Swiss?”," IMF Working Papers 2008/087, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Nikeel Kumar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2019. "Exploring the effect of ICT and tourism on economic growth: a study of Israel," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 221-254, August.

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    Keywords

    WP; real GDP; real interest rate;
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