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Government Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates

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  • Mr. Noriaki Kinoshita

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between government debt and long-term interest rates. A dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates debt nonneutrality is specified and solved, and numerical simulations using the model are undertaken. In addition, empirical evidence using panel data for 19 industrial countries is examined. The estimation provides some evidence supporting the theoretical predictions: the paper finds that the simulated and estimated interest rate effects of government debt tend to be small. However, an increase in government consumption and debt leads to a considerably larger effect. The paper also argues that, although the interest rate effects of pure crowding out may be limited, the economic impact of accumulating government debt cannot be ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Noriaki Kinoshita, 2006. "Government Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2006/063, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/063
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    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    2. Wang, Shu-Ling, 2021. "Fiscal stimulus in a high-debt economy? A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 118-135.
    3. Bassey Okon Ebi & Imoke Douglas Imoke, 2017. "Public Debt Carrying Capacity and Debt Transmission Channels: The Nigerian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 41-52.
    4. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    5. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2015. "The Imbalanced Catch-up to Rational Expectations: Capital Flows during Convergence," MPRA Paper 71009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2016.
    6. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    7. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Collender, Sierra & Gan, Baoqing & Nikitopoulos, Christina S. & Richards, Kylie-Anne & Ryan, Laura, 2023. "Climate transition risk in sovereign bond markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Bayer, Christian & Born, Benjamin & Luetticke, Ralph, 2023. "The liquidity channel of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 86-117.
    10. Bernadeta Baran, 2013. "Reguła średniookresowego celu budżetowego w Unii Europejskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 23-47.
    11. Beck Hanno & Wentzel Dirk, 2011. "Ordnungspolitische Überlegungen zu einer Insolvenzordnung für Staaten / Principles for an Insolvency Code for States," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 62(1), pages 71-100, January.
    12. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 912-932, September.
    13. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    14. Christopher J. Gust & Arsenios Skaperdas, 2024. "Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2018. "Do Macroeconomics Channels Matter for Examining Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in India?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 121-142, December.
    16. Malešević Perović, Lena, 2015. "The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 301-316.
    17. Jemima Peppel-Srebrny, 2018. "Government borrowing cost and balance sheets: do assets matter?," Economics Series Working Papers 860, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2017. "Extrapolative expectations and capital flows during convergence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 169-190.
    19. Suvra Prokash Mondal & Biswajit Maitra, 2022. "Deficits, Debt and Interest Rates in Sri Lanka: Does the Spillover of Foreign Interest Rates Matter?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 28-48, February.
    20. Claeys, Peter & Moreno, Rosina & Suriñach, Jordi, 2012. "Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 48-59.
    21. Nadine McCloud & Michael S. Delgado, 2022. "Domestic interest rate, foreign direct investment, and corruption," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 467-491, May.
    22. Keyser, Alice & Paczos, Wojtek, 2023. "Sovereign risk, debt composition and exchange rate regimes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    23. Perveen, Asma & Munir, Kashif, 2017. "Impact of Total, Internal and External Government Debt on Interest Rate in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 83427, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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