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Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions: Implications for Africa

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  • Mr. Michal Hulej
  • Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides
  • Mr. Pierre Ewenczyk

Abstract

This paper explores and quantifies several aspects of the performance of currency unions using an augmented version of the gravity model and focusing on two samples, the world and Africa. Our empirical findings suggest that, in principle, membership in a currency union should benefit Africa as much as it does the rest of the world. In addition, we find evidence from both samples that the effect of currency unions on trade is large, almost a doubling; currency unions are associated with trade creation, increase price co-movements among members, and make trade more stable; and longer duration of currency union membership brings about more benefits, although with some diminishing returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Michal Hulej & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Mr. Pierre Ewenczyk, 2006. "Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions: Implications for Africa," IMF Working Papers 2006/031, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/031
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    Cited by:

    1. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2022. "ECOWAS single currency: Prospective effects on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Asongu, Simplice A. & Folarin, Oludele E. & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2019. "The long run stability of money demand in the proposed West African monetary union," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 483-495.
    3. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "An Index of African Monetary Integration (IAMI)," Working Papers 20/003, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    4. Vigninou GAMMADIGBE & Ismaël ISSIFOU & Daouda SEMBENE & Sampawende J.-A. TAPSOBA, 2018. "Convergence et divergence budgétaire en Afrique : le rôle des Communautés économiques régionales et des Unions économiques et monétaires," Working Papers P217, FERDI.
    5. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta Nwachukwu & Vanessa Tchamyou, 2017. "A Literature Survey On Proposed African Monetary Unions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 878-902, July.
    6. Abban, Stanley & Ofori-Abebrese, Grace, 2019. "The Prospect Of ECOWAS Currency Union On Intra-Regional Trade," MPRA Paper 102226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Paul R. Masson, 2019. "Currency Unions in Africa: Is the Trade Effect Substantial Enough to Justify Their Formation?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 7, pages 243-262, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Xavier Debrun & Paul R. Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2019. "Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 6, pages 195-242, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Asongu, Simplice & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2017. "A summary of a survey on proposed African monetary unions," MPRA Paper 79637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jeronimo Carballo & Andres Gallo, 2011. "The impact of export promotion institutions on trade: is it the intensive or the extensive margin?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-132.
    11. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    12. Semedo, Gervasio & Gauthier, Laurent & Bensafta, Kamel Malik, 2012. "Pôles de convergence, gains dynamiques de l’intégration économique et monétaire en Afrique de l’Ouest : une approche en termes de clusters," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 37-85, mars.
    13. TAPSOBA, Sampawende J.-A. TAPSOBA & SEMBENE, Daouda & GAMMADIGB, Vigninou & ISSIFOU, Ismaël, 2019. "Fiscal Convergence in Africa: What Role for Regional Economic Communities?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 214-235.
    14. Nicole MADARIAGA, 2017. "Mesure et évolutions récentes de l’intégration commerciale en zone franc," Working Paper dd258ddc-f7d0-436e-9678-a, Agence française de développement.
    15. Mahvash S Qureshi, 2008. "Africa’s Oil Abundance and External Competitiveness: Do Institutions Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2008/172, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    17. Nchake, Mamello A. & Edwards, Lawrence & Rankin, Neil, 2018. "Closer monetary union and product market integration in emerging economies: Evidence from the Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 154-164.
    18. Onyeaka, Keleenna & Agbugba, Ikechi Kelechi & Iheonu, Chimere Okechukwu, . "Ditch the NAIRA and Champion the ECO? A Post-Forex Crisis Assessment," Journal of Economic and Sustainable Growth 3, Office Of The Chief Economist, Development Bank of Nigeria, vol. 1.
    19. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jeronimo Carballo & Andres Gallo, 2011. "The impact of export promotion institutions on trade: is it the intensive or the extensive margin?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-132.
    20. Simplice A. Asongu & Samba Diop, 2025. "An Index of African Monetary Integration (IAMI)," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 3-29, January.
    21. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2019. "The Euro and the CFA Franc: Evidence of Sectoral Trade Effects," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 483-504, July.
    22. Diagne, Youssoupha Sakrya, 2021. "Enjeux du projet de monnaie unique CEDEAO [Implications of the ECOWAS single currency project]," MPRA Paper 113995, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    WP; union; currency; Africa;
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