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The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output

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  • Mr. Evan C Tanner
  • Mr. Kevin J Carey

Abstract

If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simulations confirm that such a policy would require undesirably volatile fiscal adjustments and may inhibit countercyclical borrowing. An alternative would be to link the primary surplus not only to the debt ratio (like tax smoothing) but also to its volatility, thus preempting further adjustments while gradually reducing the debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Evan C Tanner & Mr. Kevin J Carey, 2005. "The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output," IMF Working Papers 2005/207, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/207
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zeira, Joseph & Strawczynski, Michel, 2009. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy: Permanent and Transitory Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 2005/226, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bernardo Maggi, 2015. "(Why) Is the Euro system intrinsically unstable?," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2015/1, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Jamaica: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/198, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sassire Napo, 2022. "Assessing public debt sustainability under COVID‐19 uncertainty: Evidence from Côte d'Ivoire," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-160, July.
    7. Maggi, Bernardo, 2023. "Eurosystem stability: A stochastic dynamic optimization approach to public debt," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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