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Overpricing in Emerging Market Credit-Default-Swap Contracts: Some Evidence from Recent Distress Cases

Author

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  • Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky
  • Mr. Manmohan Singh

Abstract

Since recent debt restructurings that constitute credit events have been more frequent than outright defaults, sovereign bond prices may not collapse during distress. In this case, the likely high recovery values after restructuring suggest that the cost of credit-default-swap (CDS) contracts to the buyer (as measured by CDS spreads) may be higher than warranted. We estimate the extent of such overpricing by using the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) bond as a proxy for the recovery-value assumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2005. "Overpricing in Emerging Market Credit-Default-Swap Contracts: Some Evidence from Recent Distress Cases," IMF Working Papers 2005/125, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/125
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip B. Madan & Frank X. Zhang, 2001. "Understanding the role of recovery in default risk models: empirical comparisons and implied recovery rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1980. "Analyzing Convertible Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 907-929, November.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Ming, 1996. "Swap Rates and Credit Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 921-949, July.
    5. Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2003. "Recovery Rates From Distressed Debt: Empirical Evidence From Chapter 11 Filings, International Litigation, and Recent Sovereign Debt Restructurings," IMF Working Papers 2003/161, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Weber & John Duffy & Arthur Schram, 2019. "Credit Default Swap Regulation in Experimental Bond Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1905, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Weber, Matthias & Duffy, John & Schram, Arthur, 2024. "Regulation and the demand for credit default swaps in experimental bond markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    3. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Sturzenegger, Federico & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008. "Haircuts: Estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings, 1998-2005," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 780-805, September.
    5. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Michael Adler & Jeong Song, 2010. "The behavior of emerging market sovereigns' credit default swap premiums and bond yield spreads," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 31-58.

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    Keywords

    WP; CDS; CDS contract; bond; price; value;
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