IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2004-229.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate, Money, and Wages: What is Driving Prices in Armenia?

Author

Listed:
  • Armine Khachatryan
  • Mr. David A. Grigorian
  • Grigor Sargsyan

Abstract

This paper is the first attempt to look at inflation dynamics and monetary transmission mechanisms in Armenia in the context of a full information model containing three interrelated markets: foreign exchange, money, and labor. Using the vector error correction model (VECM) approach, we find that the exchange rate pass-through to prices is very strong relative to credit, wage, and interest rate channels. The analysis suggests a relatively fast adjustment of prices to long-run disequilibria in the exchange rate market, albeit with initial overshooting of the price level. In addition, we find no evidence of prices responding to changes in money and wages in a statistically significant manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Armine Khachatryan & Mr. David A. Grigorian & Grigor Sargsyan, 2004. "Exchange Rate, Money, and Wages: What is Driving Prices in Armenia?," IMF Working Papers 2004/229, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/229
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17826
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louis Kuijs, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation in Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 2002/080, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mr. Bennett T. McCallum & Ms. Monica Hargraves, 1994. "A Monetary Impulse Measure for Medium-Term Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 1994/146, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mr. Peter Isard, 2003. "Some Implications for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Working Papers 2003/025, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Billmeier, Andreas & Bonato, Leo, 2004. "Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy in Croatia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 426-444, September.
    7. Allan H. Meltzer, 1995. "Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 49-72, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Holger Floerkemeier, 2006. "Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia: Evidence from VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2006/248, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Brieuc Monfort & Santiago Peña, 2008. "Inflation Determinants in Paraguay: Cost Push versus Demand Pull Factors," IMF Working Papers 2008/270, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Francis Y Kumah, 2006. "The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 2006/175, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Billmeier, Andreas & Bonato, Leo, 2004. "Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy in Croatia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 426-444, September.
    2. Igor Velickovski & Geoffrey Thomas Pugh, 2011. "Constraints on exchange rate flexibility in transition economies: a meta-regression analysis of exchange rate pass-through," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(27), pages 4111-4125.
    3. Beirne, John & Bijsterbosch, Martin, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through in central and eastern European EU Member States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, March.
    4. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.
    5. Martins Bitans, 2004. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    8. Ali MNA & Moheddine YOUNSI, 2018. "A monetary conditions index and its application on Tunisian economic forecasting," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 38-56, March.
    9. Jérôme Héricourt & Iuliana Matei, 2007. "Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les pays d'E urope centrale et orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 221-238.
    10. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: he Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 19589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Caputo, Rodrigo, 2015. "Persistent real misalignments and the role of the exchange rate regime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 112-116.
    12. Slavi T. Slavov, 2013. "De Jure versus De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(5), pages 732-756, November.
    13. Hernandez, Leonardo & Montiel, Peter J., 2003. "Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: Filling in the "hollow middle"?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 336-369, September.
    14. David Rae & David Turner, 2001. "A Small Global Forecasting Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 286, OECD Publishing.
    15. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence From De Facto Policies," IMF Working Papers 2002/155, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Shu Wu & Shigeru Iwata, 2004. "Estimating Monetary Policy Effects When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 478, Econometric Society.
    17. Skrypnik, Dmitriy, 2016. "A Macroeconomic Model of the Russian Economy," MPRA Paper 93506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Allan H. Meltzer, 2014. "Slow Recovery with Low Inflation," Book Chapters, in: Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, chapter 8, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    19. Robert-Paul Berben & Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Requirements for successful currency regimes: the Dutch and Thai experiences," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-16, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    20. Biswajit Maitra, 2011. "Anticipated Money, Unanticipated Money and Output Variations in Singapore," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 118-133.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.