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Real and Distributive Effects of Petroleum Price Liberalization: The Case of Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Benedict J. Clements
  • Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
  • Mr. Hong-Sang Jung

Abstract

The impact of higher petroleum prices on the aggregate price level, real growth, and income distribution is appraised within a multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A reduction in the government subsidy raises petroleum prices and production costs throughout the economy. Consumer demand, production, and income decline as output prices increase and consumer purchasing power decreases. The model is applied to and calibrated for Indonesia. The simulated results predict a slight increase in price level and a slight decrease in output. An important result is that urban household groups will be the most significantly affected by the subsidy reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Hong-Sang Jung, 2003. "Real and Distributive Effects of Petroleum Price Liberalization: The Case of Indonesia," IMF Working Papers 2003/204, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/204
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ravallion, Martin & Huppi, Monika, 1991. "Measuring Changes in Poverty: A Methodological Case Study of Indonesia during an Adjustment Period," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 5(1), pages 57-82, January.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Indonesia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2002/154, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2002. "Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/077, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Ehtisham Ahmad & Mr. Luc E. Leruth, 2000. "Indonesia: Implementing National Policies in a Decentralized Context: Special Purpose Programs to Protect the Poor," IMF Working Papers 2000/102, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mills, Evan, 2017. "Global Kerosene Subsidies: An Obstacle to Energy Efficiency and Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 463-480.
    2. Kpodar, Kangni & Liu, Boya, 2022. "The distributional implications of the impact of fuel price increases on inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Nathan S. Balke, Michael Plante, and Mine Yücel, 2015. "Fuel Subsidies, the Oil Market and the World Economy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Adelman S).
    4. Chepeliev, Maksym & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2017. "Global Energy Subsidies Reform: Inclusive Approaches to Welfare Assessment," Conference papers 332821, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Jiang, Zhujun & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "The perverse fossil fuel subsidies in China—The scale and effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 411-419.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2007. "State-of-the-Art in Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modelling with a Case Study of the Philippines," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 20(1).
    8. Kangni Kpodar & Calvin Djiofack, 2010. "The Distributional Effects of Oil Price Changes on Household Income: Evidence from Mali," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(2), pages 205-236, March.
    9. Acharya, Rajesh H. & Sadath, Anver C., 2017. "Implications of energy subsidy reform in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 453-462.
    10. Yusuf, Arief Anshory & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia," MPRA Paper 1946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mr. Kangni R Kpodar, 2006. "Distributional Effects of Oil Price Changeson Household Expenditures: Evidence From Mali," IMF Working Papers 2006/091, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Morovati, Mohammad & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2022. "Dynamics of fuel demand elasticity: Evidence from Iranian subsidy reforms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Mr. Kevin Fletcher, 2005. "Increasing Public Sector Revenue in the Philippines: Equity and Efficiency Considerations," IMF Working Papers 2005/022, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Soile, Ismail & Mu, Xiaoyi, 2015. "Who benefit most from fuel subsidies? Evidence from Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 314-324.
    15. Kangni Kpodar, 2011. "Impact de l'accroissement du prix des produits pétroliers sur la distribution des revenus au Mali," CERDI Working papers halshs-00557133, HAL.
    16. Jiang, Zhujun & Tan, Jijun, 2013. "How the removal of energy subsidy affects general price in China: A study based on input–output model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 599-606.
    17. Djoni Hartono & Tony Irawan & Ahmad Komarulzaman, 2014. "Energy Pricing Policies in Indonesia: A Computable General Equilibrium Model," EcoMod2014 7344, EcoMod.
    18. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Pricing Reform for Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200701, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2007.
    19. Sofyan SYAHNUR & Klaus FROHBERG, 2008. "The Impact of Oil Price Behavior on the Poor in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam Province, Indonesia," EcoMod2008 23800139, EcoMod.
    20. Kerkelä, Leena, 2004. "Distortion costs and effects of price liberalisation in Russian energy markets : A CGE analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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