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The Fall and Recovery of the Cuban Economy in the 1990's: Mirage or Reality?

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  • Mr. Ernesto Hernández-Catá

Abstract

The collapse of the Cuban economy following the cessation of Soviet assistance gave way to a strong recovery in 1994-96. There are three possible explanations for this recovery: (i) that it never took place; (ii) that it reflected a surge in productivity resulting from stabilization and liberalization in 1993-94; or (iii) that it resulted from a favorable aggregate demand shock. The second explanation-the most persuasive-suggests that a strong and durable expansion will probably not be achieved on the basis of present policies, but that the benefits of a full liberalization of the economy are likely to be considerable.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ernesto Hernández-Catá, 2001. "The Fall and Recovery of the Cuban Economy in the 1990's: Mirage or Reality?," IMF Working Papers 2001/048, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/048
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorge F. Pérez-López, 1995. "Coveting Beijing, But Imitating Moscow: Cuba's Economic Reforms in a Comparative Perspective," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 5.
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    5. José F. Alonso & Armando M. Lago, 1995. "A First Approximation Model of Money, Prices and Exchange Rates in Revolutionary Cuba," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 5.
    6. Emily Morris, 2000. "Interpreting Cuba's External Accounts," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 10.
    7. Roger R. Betancourt, 1999. "Cuba's Economic "Reforms": Waiting for Fidel on the Eve of the Twenty-First Century," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 9.
    8. Wenli Li & Ms. Zuzana Brixiova & Tarik Yousef, 1999. "Skill Acquisition and Firm Creation in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 1999/130, International Monetary Fund.
    9. José F. Alonso & Ralph J. Galliano, 1999. "Russian Oil-For-Sugar Barter Deals 1989-1999," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 9.
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