IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2000-028.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market: The Case of Mexico in 1994/95

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker
  • Mr. Anthony J. Richards
  • Mr. Gaston Gelos

Abstract

Using company-level data, this paper examines the relative stock-market performance of firms with different foreign-exchange exposures around the time of the 1994/95 Mexican crisis. Contrary to what one might have expected given the alleged peso overvaluation, exporting firms outperformed the market beginning in late 1993. Although interest rates fail to show a clear confidence loss in the exchange rate regime, the relative performance of net exporters suggests that expectations of devaluation increased continuously. The methodology presented is relevant beyond the Mexican case: sectoral differences in stock market performance may constitute valuable leading indicators of exchange rate changes in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker & Mr. Anthony J. Richards & Mr. Gaston Gelos, 2000. "Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market: The Case of Mexico in 1994/95," IMF Working Papers 2000/028, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3459
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Popp, Stephan & D'Rosario, Michael, 2011. "Share price clustering in Mexico," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 113-119, April.
    2. Dany Bahar & Miguel Angel Santos & Carlos Alberto Molina, 2017. "Fool’s Gold: Currency Devaluations and Stock Prices of Multinational Companies Operating in Venezuela," Growth Lab Working Papers 98, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    3. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Regime linkages between the Mexican currency market and emerging equity markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-125, January.
    4. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
    5. Chortareas, Georgios & Cipollini, Andrea & Eissa, Mohamed Abdelaziz, 2012. "Switching to floating exchange rates, devaluations, and stock returns in MENA countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 119-127.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.