IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfscr/2016-317.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Nonbank Sector Stability Analyses

Author

Listed:
  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Ireland in the areas of nonbank sector stability. Both nonparametric and parametric methods suggest that the residential real estate market in Ireland is close to or moderately below its equilibrium level. Two standard metrics of price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios show that following a protracted period of overvaluation prior to the crisis and a correction afterward, the market has been close to its equilibrium level in recent quarters. Households have deleveraged, but are still highly indebted. The stability analysis results also suggest that vulnerabilities among nonfinancial firms have moderated in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Nonbank Sector Stability Analyses," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/317, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2016/317
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44310
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cussen, Mary & O'Leary, Brídín, 2013. "Why are Irish Non-Financial Corporations so Indebted?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 104-118, January.
    2. World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Financial Sector Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 26018, The World Bank Group.
    3. Gaffney, Edward & Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2014. "A transitions-based framework for estimating expected credit losses," Research Technical Papers 16/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Castrén, Olli & Kavonius, Ilja Kristian, 2009. "Balance Sheet Interlinkages and Macro-Financial Risk Analysis in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1124, European Central Bank.
    5. World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Financial Sector Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 25069, The World Bank Group.
    6. Hallissey, Niamh & Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terry, 2014. "Macro-prudential Tools and Credit Risk of Property Lending at Irish banks," Economic Letters 10/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Cussen, Mary, 2015. "New Insights from the Enhancements to Quarterly Financial Accounts," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 91-101, April.
    8. McCarthy, Yvonne, 2014. "Dis-entangling the mortgage arrears crisis: The rolw of the labour market, income volatility and housing equity," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Hallissey, Niamh, 2016. "Interconnectedness of the Irish banking sector with the global financial system," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 66-82, January.
    10. Miss Mali Chivakul & Mr. Waikei R Lam, 2015. "Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities," IMF Working Papers 2015/072, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Lawless, Martina & McCann, Fergal & O'Toole, Conor, 2013. "The importance of banks in SME financing: Ireland in a European context," Economic Letters 05/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. Reamonn Lyndon & Yvonne McCarthy, 2013. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 117-150.
    13. Kelly, Robert & O’Malley, Terence, 2016. "The good, the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-9.
    14. Grace, Therese & Hallissey, Niamh & Woods, Maria, 2015. "The Instruments of Macro-Prudential Policy," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 90-105, January.
    15. McCann, Fergal, 2014. "Profiling the indebtedness of Irish SMEs," Economic Letters 03/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    16. Jackson, Christopher, 2011. "Multi-State Models for Panel Data: The msm Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 38(i08).
    17. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Global Housing Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2012/217, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Duffy, David & Dwyer, Hannah, 2015. "FDI and the Availability of Dublin Office Space," Research Notes RN2015/3/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. Mr. Fabiano Rodrigues Rodrigues Bastos & Herman Kamil & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2015. "Corporate Financing Trends and Balance Sheet Risks in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2015/010, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Duffy, David & Byrne, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Alternative Scenarios for New Household Formation in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    21. Shekhar Aiyar & Wolfgang Bergthaler & Jose M Garrido & Anna Ilyina & Andreas Jobst & Kenneth H Kang & Dmitriy Kovtun & Yan Liu & Dermot Monaghan & Marina Moretti, 2015. "A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/19, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy Framework," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/316, International Monetary Fund.
    2. McCann, Fergal, 2014. "Modelling default transitions in the UK mortgage market," Research Technical Papers 18/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Slaymaker, Rachel & O'Toole, Conor & McQuinn, Kieran & Fahy, Mike, 2018. "Monetary policy normalisation and mortgage arrears in a recovering economy: The case of the Irish residential market," Papers WP613, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Kelly, Robert & O’Malley, Terence, 2016. "The good, the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-9.
    5. Nir Klein, 2016. "Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Ireland," IMF Working Papers 2016/211, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terence, 2014. "A Transitions-Based Model of Default for Irish Mortgages," Research Technical Papers 17/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terence & O'Toole, Conor, 2015. "Designing Macro-prudential Policy in Mortgage Lending: Do First Time Buyers Default Less?," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Kelly, Robert & O'Toole, Conor, 2016. "Lending Conditions and Loan Default: What Can We Learn From UK Buy-to-Let Loans?," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Gaffney, Edward & McCann, Fergal, 2019. "The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9," ESRB Working Paper Series 92, European Systemic Risk Board.
    10. O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Some defaults are deeper than others: Understanding long-term mortgage arrears," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 15-27.
    12. Tsiropoulos, Vasilis, 2018. "A Vulnerability Analysis for Mortgaged Irish Households," Financial Stability Notes 02-18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Dimitrios Laliotis & Alejandro Buesa & Miha Leber & Javier Población, 2020. "An agent-based model for the assessment of LTV caps," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 1721-1748, October.
    14. David Byrne & Robert Kelly & Conor O'Toole, 2022. "How Does Monetary Policy Pass‐Through Affect Mortgage Default? Evidence from the Irish Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2081-2101, October.
    15. Gaffney, Edward & McCann, Fergal, 2018. "The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9," Research Technical Papers 16/RT/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    16. Kelly, Robert & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Mortgage default, lending conditions and macroprudential policy: Loan-level evidence from UK buy-to-lets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 322-335.
    17. Morell, Joe & Rice, Jonathan & Shaw, Frances, 2022. "A Framework for Macroprudential Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    18. Joyce, John & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Model-based estimates of the resilience of mortgages at origination," Economic Letters 09/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    19. Tsiropoulos, Vasilis, 2018. "A Vulnerability Analysis for Mortgaged Irish Households," Financial Stability Notes 2/FS/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    20. Mark Cassidy & Niamh Hallissey, 2016. "The Introduction of Macroprudential Measures for the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 271-297.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2016/317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.