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From Population Growth to TFP Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroshi Inokuma

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroshi.inokuma@boj.or.jp))

  • Juan M. Sánchez

    (Senior Economic Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (E-mail: juan.m.sanchez@stls.frb.org))

Abstract

A slowdown in population growth causes a decline in business dynamism by increasing the share of old businesses. But how does it affect productivity growth? We answer this question by extending a standard business dynamics model to include endogenous productivity growth. Theoretically, the growth rate of the size of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" for determining the direction and magnitude of the impact of population growth on productivity growth. Quantitatively, this effect is significant across balanced growth paths for the United States and Japan. TFP growth in the United States falls by 0.3 percentage points because of the slowing in population growth between 1970 and 2060. The same driving force produces a significantly bigger response in Japan. Despite the significant long-run effect, we discover that changes in TFP growth are slow in reaction to population growth changes due to two short-run counterbalancing factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Inokuma & Juan M. Sánchez, 2024. "From Population Growth to TFP Growth," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:24-e-09
    as

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    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/24-E-09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
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    3. Michael Peters & Conor Walsh, 2021. "Population Growth and Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 29424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hugo Hopenhayn & Julian Neira & Rish Singhania, 2022. "From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1879-1914, July.
    5. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population growth; economic growth; firms dynamics; demographics; productivity; innovation; TFP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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