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Monetary Policy in East Asia: Common Concerns

Author

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  • Marvin Goodfriend

    (Professor, Carnegie Mellon University (E-mail: marvingd@andrew.cmu.edu))

Abstract

The paper identifies and evaluates consequences for monetary policy of five features of East Asian development: export orientation, integrated regional trade, bank-dependent finance, the potential for persistent trade surpluses, and the aggressive accumulation of international reserves. The case for a flexible exchange rate is made in terms of the New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS). NNS logic indicates why fluctuations in "export optimism" create problems for the sustainability of a fixed exchange rate. Cooperative credit policy in East Asia is discussed by analogy to a credit union. The paper outlines problems for monetary policy created by bank-dependent finance in East Asia. A two- country NNS model indicates that a revaluation of the RMB against the dollar is likely to exert little effect on the US trade deficit, although it should help control inflation in China. The paper argues that China can adopt a flexible exchange rate in a few years with modest reforms of its banking system. Finally, the paper considers various reasons for the accumulation of international reserves in East Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "Monetary Policy in East Asia: Common Concerns," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-18, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:07-e-18
    as

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    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/07-E-18.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January.
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    7. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2009. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," Chapters, in: Gill Hammond & Ravi Kanbur & Eswar Prasad (ed.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Goodfriend, Marvin & McDermott, John, 1998. "Industrial Development and the Convergence Question," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1277-1289, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    East Asia; Monetary Policy; Banking Policy; Exchange Rates; Trade Balance; International Reserves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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