IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/wpaper/wp99-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Marcus Noland

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Sherman Robinson

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Tao Wang

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we use cross-entropy estimation techniques to construct the underlying data base for a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the North Korean economy, starting from incomplete data ridden with gross measurement errors. The cross-entropy estimation approach is powerful and flexible, allowing us to make full use of what information we have in whatever form. CGE modeling forces internal consistency. The end product is a model that incorporates fragmentary information in a rigorous way and allows us to examine the implications of a number of alternative scenarios including rehabilitation of flood-affected lands, liberalization of the international trade regime, and military demobilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Tao Wang, 1999. "Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy," Working Paper Series WP99-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp99-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/rigorous-speculation-collapse-and-revival-north-korean-economy
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Noland, Marcus, 1990. "Prospective changes in Japan's trade pattern," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 211-238, September.
    2. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-549, August.
    3. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Ligang Liu, 1999. "The economics of korean unification," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 255-299.
    4. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley & DEC, 1994. "The Soviet economic decline : historical and republican data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1284, The World Bank.
    5. Marcus Noland (ed.), 1998. "Economic Integration of Korean Peninsula," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number sr10, April.
    6. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Li-Gang Liu, 1998. "The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification," Working Paper Series WP98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Marcus Noland, 2000. "Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 94, April.
    8. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Modeling Korean Unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-421, June.
    9. Dyck, I J Alexander, 1997. "Privatization in Eastern Germany: Management Selection and Economic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 565-597, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Modeling Korean Unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-421, June.
    2. Marta Kightley, 2012. "Stosunki gospodarcze pomiędzy Republiką Korei a Koreańską Republiką Ludowo-Demokratyczną," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 43-60.
    3. Sumie Sato & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2007. "The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-38, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Dahlan, Hadi Akbar, 2021. "Trends and Food Technology Gap in Global Food Policy," SocArXiv 7r8sm, Center for Open Science.
    5. Marcus Noland, 2004. "Famine and Reform in North Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 1-40.
    6. Jong‐Wha Lee & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2018. "North Korea’s Economic Integration and Growth Potential," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 301-325, September.
    7. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2001. "Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(4), pages 741-767, July.
    8. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Kim, Suk Jin & Lee, Keun, 2007. "Assessing the economic performance of North Korea, 1954-1989: Estimates and growth accounting analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 564-582, September.
    9. Sato, Sumie & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2011. "The North Korean economy: Escape from import-led growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 76-83, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Modeling Korean Unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-421, June.
    2. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Ligang Liu, 1999. "The economics of korean unification," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 255-299.
    3. Funke, Michael & Strulik, Holger, 2005. "Growth and convergence in a two-region model: The hypothetical case of Korean unification," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 255-279, April.
    4. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Kim, Suk Jin & Lee, Keun, 2007. "Assessing the economic performance of North Korea, 1954-1989: Estimates and growth accounting analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 564-582, September.
    5. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Scatasta, Monica, 1997. "Modeling economic reform in North Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-38.
    6. Marcus Noland, 2004. "Famine and Reform in North Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 1-40.
    7. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2001. "Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(4), pages 741-767, July.
    8. Moonsung Kang & Soonchan Park, 2018. "Institutional Economic Integration between South and North Korea and the Economic Impacts of Integration," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 257-276, September.
    9. Bradford, Scott C. & Phillips, Kerk L., 2008. "The Economic Reunification of Korea: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," MPRA Paper 23550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Paul Hare, 2012. "North Korea: Building the Institutions to Raise Living Standards," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 487-509, September.
    11. Haggard, Stephan & Noland, Marcus, 2009. "Famine in North Korea Redux?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 384-395, September.
    12. Noland, Marcus & Haggard, Stephan, 2007. "Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform," MPRA Paper 92548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo & Park, Donghyun, 2008. "Korean unification: How painful and how costly," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 87-100.
    14. Marc Mueller & Emanuele Ferrari, 2012. "Social Accounting Matrices and Satellite Accounts for EU27 on NUTS2 Level (SAMNUTS2)," JRC Research Reports JRC73088, Joint Research Centre.
    15. Goergen, Marc & Manjon, Miguel C. & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "Recent developments in German corporate governance," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 175-193, September.
    16. Akcigit, Ufuk & Alp, Harun & Diegmann, André & Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas, 2025. "Committing to grow: Employment targets and firm dynamics," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2025.
    17. Wang, Zhi & Gehlhar, Mark & Yao, Shunli, 2010. "A globally consistent framework for reliability-based trade statistics reconciliation in the presence of an entrepôt," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 161-189, March.
    18. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Keogh-Brown, Marcus R. & Shankar, Bhavani & Aekplakorn, Wichai & Basu, Sanjay & Cuevas, Soledad & Dangour, Alan D. & Gheewala, Shabbir H. & Green, Rosemary & Joy, Edward J.M. & , 2019. "Palm oil and dietary change: Application of an integrated macroeconomic, environmental, demographic, and health modelling framework for Thailand," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 92-103.
    19. Sumie Sato & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2007. "The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-38, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    20. Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2003. "Economic Leverage and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis," Policy Briefs PB03-03, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp99-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peterson Institute webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iieeeus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.