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What Might a Trump Withdrawal from the World Trade Organization Mean for US Tariffs?

Author

Listed:
  • Chad P. Bown

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Douglas Irwin

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

President Donald Trump has long made clear his disdain for the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has reportedly often stated his desire to pull the United States out of the organization. Given that the president withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement, merely floating the idea that the United States would pull out of the WTO has set off alarm bells in Washington and around the world. Before Trump became president, a US withdrawal from the WTO had never been considered within the realm of possibility. It now raises several important questions. Bown and Irwin address two of them: First, what would be the consequences for US tariffs if the United States withdrew from the WTO? Second, does the president have the legal authority to pull the United States out of the organization and impose higher tariffs without congressional approval? A decision by President Trump to withdraw the United States from the WTO—if deemed legal under US law—could deal a disastrous blow to America’s foreign trade and would likely cripple an organization that has helped foster peaceful commercial relations for over seven decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad P. Bown & Douglas Irwin, 2018. "What Might a Trump Withdrawal from the World Trade Organization Mean for US Tariffs?," Policy Briefs PB18-23, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb18-23
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ian M. Sheldon, 2022. "The United States' power‐based bargaining and the WTO: Has anything really been gained?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1424-1439, September.
    2. Fiorentini, Riccardo, 2020. "The Persisting US Trade Deficit: Is Protectionistm the Right Answer?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 155-186.
    3. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2019. "Regional Integration and Global Response to US Protectionism," Conference papers 333116, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2019. "Global adjustment to US disengagement from the world trading system," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 522-536.
    5. Jason H. Grant & Kathryn A. Boys & Chaoping Xie, 2021. "A new president in the White House: implications for Canadian agricultural trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(1), pages 45-58, March.
    6. Jason H. Grant & Shawn Arita & Charlotte Emlinger & Robert Johansson & Chaoping Xie, 2021. "Agricultural exports and retaliatory trade actions: An empirical assessment of the 2018/2019 trade conflict," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 619-640, June.
    7. Shantayanan Devarajan & Delfin S. Go & Csilla Lakatos & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2021. "Traders' dilemma: Developing countries' response to trade wars," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 856-878, April.

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