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Deposit Volatility, Liquidity and Long-Term Investment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Pakistan

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  • M. Ali Choudhary
  • Nicola Limodio

Abstract

Deposit volatility and costly bank liquidity increase the long-term lending rates offered by banks, which reduce loan maturities, long-term investment and output. We formalise this mechanism in a banking model and analyse exogenous variation in deposit volatility induced by a Sharia levy in Pakistan. Data from the credit registry and a firm-level survey show that deposit volatility and liquidity cost: 1) reduce loan maturities and lending rates; 2) leave loan amounts and total investment unchanged; 3) redirect investment from fixed assets towards working capital. A targeted liquidity program is quantified to generate yearly output gains between 0.042% and 0.205%. JEL: O12, G21, O16, E58 Keywords: Development, Banking, Investment, Central Banks

Suggested Citation

  • M. Ali Choudhary & Nicola Limodio, 2017. "Deposit Volatility, Liquidity and Long-Term Investment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Pakistan," Working Papers 613, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:613
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chavaz, Matthieu & Elliott, David, 2020. "Separating retail and investment banking: evidence from the UK," Bank of England working papers 892, Bank of England, revised 18 Feb 2021.
    3. Angelo D'Andrea & Nicola Limodio, 2019. "High-Speed Internet, Financial Technology and Banking in Africa," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19124, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Carletti, Elena & De Marco, Filippo & Ioannidou, Vasso & Sette, Enrico, 2021. "Banks as patient lenders: Evidence from a tax reform," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 6-26.
    5. Beck, Thorsten & Ongena, Steven & Şendeniz-Yüncü, İlkay, 2019. "Keep walking? Geographical proximity, religion, and relationship banking," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 49-68.
    6. Kokas, Sotirios & Vinogradov, Dmitri & Zachariadis, Marios, 2020. "Which banks smooth and at what price?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Cem Demiroglu & Oguzhan Ozbas & Rui C. Silva & Mehmet Fati̇h Ulu, 2021. "Do Physiological and Spiritual Factors Affect Economic Decisions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2481-2523, October.
    8. Thang Bach & Charles Harvie & Thanh Le, 2021. "How credit constraints affect small and medium enterprises' strategic employment decisions and employees' labour outcomes: Evidence from Vietnam1," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 319-341, April.
    9. Choudhary, M. Ali & Jain, Anil K., 2021. "Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Craig Burnside & Mario Cerrato & Zhekai Zhang, 2018. "Foreign exchange order fl ow as a risk factor," Working Papers 2018-03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    development; banking; investment; central banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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