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Desperate times call for desperate measures: government spending multipliers in hard times

Author

Listed:
  • Sokbae (Simon) Lee

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Columbia University)

  • Yuan Liao

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Myung Hwan Seo

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Youngki Shin

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

We investigate state-dependent effects of ?scal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the US economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment rate higher than about 12 percent, the estimated cumulative multipliers are signi?cantly larger during slack periods than non-slack periods and are above unity. We also examine the possibility of time-varying regimes of slackness and ?nd that our empirical results are robust under a more ?exible framework. Our estimation results point out the importance of the heterogenous effects of ?scal policy and shed light on the prospect of ?scal policy in response to economic shocks from the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Yuan Liao & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2020. "Desperate times call for desperate measures: government spending multipliers in hard times," CeMMAP working papers CWP29/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:29/20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    2. Baihua Yuan & Wang Leiling & Hayot Berk Saydaliev & Vishal Dagar & Ángel Acevedo-Duque, 2022. "Testing the impact of fiscal policies for economic recovery: does monetary policy act as catalytic tool for economic Survival," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2215-2235, November.
    3. Li, Rong & Wei, Ning, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and government spending multipliers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Rubana Mahjabeen & Praopan Pratoomchat, 2021. "How effective is the 2020 stimulus check in Minnesota and Wisconsin counties?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1655-1665.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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