IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ifs/cemmap/29-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Desperate times call for desperate measures: government spending multipliers in hard times

Author

Listed:
  • Sokbae (Simon) Lee

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Columbia University)

  • Yuan Liao

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Myung Hwan Seo

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Youngki Shin

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

We investigate state-dependent effects of ?scal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the US economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment rate higher than about 12 percent, the estimated cumulative multipliers are signi?cantly larger during slack periods than non-slack periods and are above unity. We also examine the possibility of time-varying regimes of slackness and ?nd that our empirical results are robust under a more ?exible framework. Our estimation results point out the importance of the heterogenous effects of ?scal policy and shed light on the prospect of ?scal policy in response to economic shocks from the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Yuan Liao & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2020. "Desperate times call for desperate measures: government spending multipliers in hard times," CeMMAP working papers CWP29/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:29/20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/CWP2920-Desperate-times-call-for-desperate-measures-government-spending-multipliers-in-hard-times.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    3. Jushan Bai & Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Seraph Xin Wang, 2008. "Generic consistency of the break-point estimators under specification errors in a multiple-break model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 287-307, July.
    4. Sokbae Lee & Yuan Liao & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2018. "Factor-Driven Two-Regime Regression," Papers 1810.11109, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    5. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    6. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-146, May.
    7. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    9. Hidalgo, Javier & Lee, Jungyoon & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2019. "Robust inference for threshold regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 291-309.
    10. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    12. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    2. Baihua Yuan & Wang Leiling & Hayot Berk Saydaliev & Vishal Dagar & Ángel Acevedo-Duque, 2022. "Testing the impact of fiscal policies for economic recovery: does monetary policy act as catalytic tool for economic Survival," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2215-2235, November.
    3. Li, Rong & Wei, Ning, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and government spending multipliers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Rubana Mahjabeen & Praopan Pratoomchat, 2021. "How effective is the 2020 stimulus check in Minnesota and Wisconsin counties?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1655-1665.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2022. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone [Tales of fiscal adjustment]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 552-575.
    3. Alloza, Mario & Burriel, Pablo & Pérez, Javier J., 2019. "Fiscal policies in the euro area: Revisiting the size of spillovers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Biolsi, Christopher, 2017. "Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-87.
    5. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    6. Shingo Watanabe, 2019. "What Do British Historical Data Tell Us About Government Spending Multipliers?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1141-1162, April.
    7. Pascal Goemans, 2022. "Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1164-1185, July.
    8. Bonsoo Koo & Seojeong Lee & Myung Hwan Seo, 2022. "What Impulse Response Do Instrumental Variables Identify?," Papers 2208.11828, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    9. Regis Barnichon & Davide Debortoli & Christian Matthes, 2022. "Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 87-117.
    10. Espinoza Raphael & Gamboa-Arbelaez Juliana & Sy Mouhamadou, 2024. "The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 489-527, January.
    11. Jochen Mankart & Romanos Priftis & Rigas Oikonomou, 2022. "The long and short of financing government spending," Working Paper Research 418, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Goemans, Pascal, 2020. "Government Spending in Uncertain and Slack Times: Historical Evidence for Larger Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224642, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Martin Geiger & Marios Zachariadis, 2019. "Assessing Expectations as a Monetary/Fiscal State-Dependent Phenomenon," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    14. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain & Claeys, Peter, 2020. "Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors and fiscal transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    15. Giovanni Angelini & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2023. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Estimated with Proxy‐SVARs Robust?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 95-122, February.
    16. Anh D. M. Nguyen & Luisanna Onnis & Raffaele Rossi, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Income and Consumption Tax Changes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 439-466, May.
    17. Latifi, Albina & Naboka-Krell, Viktoriia & Tillmann, Peter & Winker, Peter, 2024. "Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Working Paper Series WP 2022-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    19. Mario Alloza, 2014. "Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or During Recessions?," Discussion Papers 1631, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Oct 2016.
    20. Karaki, Mohamad B. & Safieddine, Hadi, 2023. "Do defense news crowd out private investment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:29/20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emma Hyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmifsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.