IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ifs/cemmap/22-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonparametric regression for locally stationary time series

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Vogt

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We introduce a kernel-based method to estimate the time-varying regression function and provide asymptotic theory for our estimates. Moreover, we show that the main conditions of the theory are satisfied for a large class of nonlinear autoregressive processes with a time-varying regression function. Finally, we examine structured models where the regression function splits up into time-varying additive components. As will be seen, estimation in these models does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We complement the technical analysis of the paper by an application to financial data.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Vogt, 2012. "Nonparametric regression for locally stationary time series," CeMMAP working papers CWP22/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:22/12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wps/cwp221212.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Guojun & Xiao, Zhijie, 2002. "A generalized partially linear model of asymmetric volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 287-319, August.
    2. Koo, Bonsoo & Linton, Oliver, 2010. "Semiparametric estimation of locally stationary diffusion models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58186, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Measuring volatility with the realized range," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 181-207, May.
    4. Kristensen, Dennis, 2009. "Uniform Convergence Rates Of Kernel Estimators With Heterogeneous Dependent Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1433-1445, October.
    5. Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen, 1997. "The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm Under Weak Conditions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1160, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Hafner, Christian M. & Linton, Oliver, 2010. "Efficient estimation of a multivariate multiplicative volatility model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 55-73, November.
    7. Dahlhaus, R., 1996. "On the Kullback-Leibler information divergence of locally stationary processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 139-168, March.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Uniform Convergence Rates For Kernel Estimation With Dependent Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 726-748, June.
    9. Bhattacharya, Rabi & Lee, Chanho, 1995. "On geometric ergodicity of nonlinear autoregressive models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 311-315, March.
    10. Yang, Dennis & Zhang, Qiang, 2000. "Drift-Independent Volatility Estimation Based on High, Low, Open, and Close Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 477-491, July.
    11. Dahlhaus, R. & Neumann, M. & Von Sachs, R., 1997. "Nonlinear Wavelet Estimation of Time-Varying Autoregressive Processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,34, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    12. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
    13. Elias Masry, 1996. "Multivariate Local Polynomial Regression For Time Series:Uniform Strong Consistency And Rates," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(6), pages 571-599, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bonsoo Koo & Oliver Linton, 2010. "Semiparametric Estimation of Locally Stationary Diffusion Models," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 551, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    2. Lena Boneva (Körber) & Oliver Linton & Michael Vogt, 2013. "A semiparametric model for heterogeneous panel data with fixed effects," CeMMAP working papers 02/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Boneva, Lena & Linton, Oliver & Vogt, Michael, 2015. "A semiparametric model for heterogeneous panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 327-345.
    4. Chen, Qitong & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haiqi, 2024. "Time-varying forecast combination for factor-augmented regressions with smooth structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    5. Su, Liangjun & Lu, Xun, 2013. "Nonparametric dynamic panel data models: Kernel estimation and specification testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 112-133.
    6. Peter Malec, 2016. "A Semiparametric Intraday GARCH Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1633, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Debopam Bhattacharya & Shin Kanaya & Margaret Stevens, 2017. "Are University Admissions Academically Fair?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 449-464, July.
    8. Gao, Jiti & Kanaya, Shin & Li, Degui & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2015. "Uniform Consistency For Nonparametric Estimators In Null Recurrent Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 911-952, October.
    9. O. Linton & E. Mammen, 2005. "Estimating Semiparametric ARCH(∞) Models by Kernel Smoothing Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 771-836, May.
    10. Li, Degui & Lu, Zudi & Linton, Oliver, 2012. "Local Linear Fitting Under Near Epoch Dependence: Uniform Consistency With Convergence Rates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 935-958, October.
    11. Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2020. "Uniform Rates for Kernel Estimators of Weakly Dependent Data," Papers 2005.09951, arXiv.org.
    12. Li, Degui & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Gao, Jiti, 2016. "Uniform Consistency Of Nonstationary Kernel-Weighted Sample Covariances For Nonparametric Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 655-685, June.
    13. Degui Li & Oliver Linton & Zudi Lu, 2010. "Loch Linear Fitting under Near Epoch Dependence: Uniform Consistency with Convergence Rate," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 549, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    14. Aris Kartsaklas, 2018. "Trader Type Effects On The Volatility‐Volume Relationship Evidence From The Kospi 200 Index Futures Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 226-250, July.
    15. Li, Cong & Liang, Zhongwen, 2015. "Asymptotics for nonparametric and semiparametric fixed effects panel models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 420-434.
    16. Bu, Ruijun & Kim, Jihyun & Wang, Bin, 2023. "Uniform and Lp convergences for nonparametric continuous time regressions with semiparametric applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1934-1954.
    17. Chen, Xiaohong & Christensen, Timothy M., 2015. "Optimal uniform convergence rates and asymptotic normality for series estimators under weak dependence and weak conditions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 447-465.
    18. Chou, Ray Yeutien & Liu, Nathan, 2010. "The economic value of volatility timing using a range-based volatility model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2288-2301, November.
    19. Tan, Shay-Kee & Ng, Kok-Haur & Chan, Jennifer So-Kuen & Mohamed, Ibrahim, 2019. "Quantile range-based volatility measure for modelling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 537-551.
    20. Haibin Xie & Shouyang Wang, 2018. "Timing the market: the economic value of price extremes," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    local stationarity; nonparametric regression; smooth backfitting;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:22/12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emma Hyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmifsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.