IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ieb/wpaper/doc2008-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?

Author

Listed:
  • Pau Castells

    (Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB))

  • Francesc Trillas

    (Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB); Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB))

Abstract

In the last days of the electoral campaign for the 2004 general election in Spain, on Thursday March 11th 2004, a series of simultaneous terror attacks caused the death of 191 persons in commuting trains in the capital Madrid. Four days later, the opposition party won the election, against all predictions that were made prior to the terror attacks. This change in expectations presents a unique opportunity to take advantage of event study techniques to test some politico-economic hypotheses. The quantitative exercise is carried out employing Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR). Hypothesis testing is improved by means of bootstrapping techniques. Convergence theories prove quite resilient as, jointly, quoted firms were not significantly affected by the election outcome. The results on the impact on particular companies and industries, however, suggest that a combination of capture and agency problems may play a role in explaining the effects of the change in expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2008. "Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?," Working Papers 2008/1, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    • Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2008-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ieb.ub.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2008-IEB-WorkingPaper-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    2. Michael C. Herron & James Lavin & Donald Cram & Jay Silver, 1999. "Measurement of Political Effects in the United States Economy: A Study of the 1992 Presidential Election," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 51-81, March.
    3. Bel, Germà & Trillas, Francesc, 2005. "Privatization, corporate control and regulatory reform: the case of Telefonica," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 25-51, February.
    4. Jef Vuchelen, 2003. "Electoral systems and the effects of political events on the stock market: The Belgian case," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 85-102, March.
    5. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
    6. Argiles, Josep M. & Brown, Nestor Duch, 2011. "A comparison of the economic and environmental performances of conventional and organic farming: evidence from financial statements," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Pin-Huang Chou, 2004. "Bootstrap Tests for Multivariate Event Studies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 275-290, November.
    8. David Leblang & Bumba Mukherjee, 2005. "Government Partisanship, Elections, and the Stock Market: Examining American and British Stock Returns, 1930–2000," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(4), pages 780-802, October.
    9. John J. Binder, 1985. "Measuring the Effects of Regulation with Stock Price Data," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 167-183, Summer.
    10. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    11. Francesc Trillas, 2004. "The structure of corporate ownership in privatized utilities," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(2), pages 257-284, May.
    12. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2002. "Special Interest Politics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262571676, April.
    13. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    14. Binder, John J, 1998. "The Event Study Methodology since 1969," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 111-137, September.
    15. Argiles, Josep M. & Brown, Nestor Duch, 2011. "A comparison of the economic and environmental performances of conventional and organic farming: evidence from financial statements," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2013. "The effects of surprise political events on quoted firms: the March 2004 election in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 83-112, March.
    2. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2008. "Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?," Working Papers 2008/1, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    3. Martin Lausegger, 2021. "Stock markets in turmoil: political institutions and the impact of elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 172-204, March.
    4. Civilize, Sireethorn & Wongchoti, Udomsak & Young, Martin, 2015. "Military regimes and stock market performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 76-95.
    5. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
    6. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Bumba Mukherjee & David Leblang, 2007. "Partisan Politics, Interest Rates And The Stock Market: Evidence From American And British Returns In The Twentieth Century," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 135-167, July.
    8. Leticia Castaño & José E. Farinós & Ana M. Ibáñez, 2024. "The stock market reaction to political and economic changes: the Spanish case," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(3), pages 593-630, September.
    9. Delia DiaconaÅŸu & Seyed Mehdian & Ovidiu Stoica, 2023. "The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    10. Bülent Köksal & Ahmet Çalışkan, 2012. "Political Business Cycles and Partisan Politics: Evidence from a Developing Economy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 182-199, July.
    11. Deari Fitim & Koku Paul Sergius, 2024. "Do Local Political Elections Affect Daily Stock Returns? Evidence from the Republic of North Macedonia's MBI10 Index," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 98-116, March.
    12. Michael Cichello & Douglas Lamdin, 2006. "Event Studies and the Analysis of Antitrust," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 229-245.
    13. Al-Ississ Mohamad, 2015. "The Cross-Border Impact of Political Violence," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 239-272, April.
    14. Seth Kopchak, 2014. "The absorption effect of US Treasury auctions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 21-44, July.
    15. Lina M. Cortés & John J. García & David Agudelo, 2015. "Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on Shareholder Wealth: Event Study for Latin American Airlines," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 12453, Universidad EAFIT.
    16. Cañón-de-Francia, Joaquín & Garcés-Ayerbe, Concepción & Ramírez-Alesón, Marisa, 2008. "Analysis of the effectiveness of the first European Pollutant Emission Register (EPER)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 83-92, August.
    17. Sanjeev Dewan & Fei Ren, 2007. "Risk and Return of Information Technology Initiatives: Evidence from Electronic Commerce Announcements," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 18(4), pages 370-394, December.
    18. Jorge Hargrave Gonçalves Da Silva, 2014. "Partisan Politics And Country Risk: Evidence From The 2002 Brazilian Presidential Election," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Layna Mosley & Victoria Paniagua & Erik Wibbels, 2020. "Moving markets? Government bond investors and microeconomic policy changes," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 197-249, July.
    20. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2021. "Profiting on the Stock Market in Pandemic Times: Study of COVID-19 Effects on CESEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-20, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event study; median voter; agency; capture; elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2008-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iebubes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.