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The possibility of ideological bias in structural macroeconomic models

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  • Saint-Paul, Gilles

Abstract

An ideologically biased expert faces trade-offs in model design. The perceived model must be autocoherent—its use by all agents delivers a self-confirming equilibrium. Policy may be influenced by manipulating the Keynesian multiplier or the Phillips curve parameters. Ideological bias may arise in a way that resembles well-known historical controversies. A larger reported Keynesian multiplier is favored by more left-wing economists, as is a flatter inflation output trade-off. Some combinations of parameters must be truthfully revealed, illustrating the tight link between parameter identification and the scope for bias that is implied by the autocoherence conditions.
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Suggested Citation

  • Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2011. "The possibility of ideological bias in structural macroeconomic models," IDEI Working Papers 679, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    • Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:24704
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    Cited by:

    1. Javdani, Mohsen & Chang, Ha-Joon, 2019. "Who Said or What Said? Estimating Ideological Bias in Views Among Economists," IZA Discussion Papers 12738, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Mohsen Javdani & Ha-Joon Chang, 2023. "Who said or what said? Estimating ideological bias in views among economists," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 47(2), pages 309-339.
    3. Carsten Hefeker & Michael Neugart, 2019. "Policy Coordination Under Model Disagreement and Uncertainty," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 719-737, September.
    4. Diaf, Sami & Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Rockenbach, Ida, 2022. "Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions based on text mining techniques," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Asatryan, Zareh & Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Nover, Justus, 2020. "Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Economy; Autocoherence; Experts; Macroeconomic modelling; Bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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