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El ciclo de crecimiento de la tasa de interés en Estados Unidos y sus consecuencias para los mercados emergentes

Author

Listed:
  • Carmen Reinhart
  • Guillermo A. Calvo
  • Eduardo Fernández-Arias
  • Ernesto Talvi

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Para el momento en que se realizó este trabajo existía una inquietud generalizada sobre el buen estado de la economía estadounidense. Hay elementos de juicio concluyentes que indican que el ritmo del crecimiento se ha desacelerado, lo que ha llevado a la Reserva Federal a recortar las tasas de interés en dos oportunidades (para un total de 100 puntos base hasta ahora). Como ya es habitual, ante esta clase de viraje, analistas y diseñadores de políticas por igual se preguntan si Estados Unidos conseguirá un aterrizaje suave o si el desmejoramiento de la coyuntura será más grave y prolongado; en el peor escenario, la nueva debilidad puede anunciar el fin de la nueva economía. Además, las recientes sorpresas inflacionarias no han sido nada alentadoras, ya que cifras inflacionarias superiores a lo anticipado pueden entorpecer el deseo y la capacidad de la Reserva Federal de actuar de manera anticíclica.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "El ciclo de crecimiento de la tasa de interés en Estados Unidos y sus consecuencias para los mercados emergentes," Research Department Publications 4280, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4280
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    2. Cavallo, Eduardo & Daude, Christian, 2011. "Public investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-81, March.
    3. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "Growth and External Financing in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4277, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Bartkiewicz Piotr, 2018. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Emerging Markets – Literature Review," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 67-76, December.
    5. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "The cyclical nature of North-South FDI flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 104-130, February.
    6. Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: The Role of Climatic and External Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2009/159, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 2013/183, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Nilufer Ozdemir, 2013. "Effects of Monetary Policy Coordination on Small Open Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 124-136, May.
    9. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "Growth and External Financing in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4277, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries: Global Drivers and Growth Implications," IMF Working Papers 2010/132, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Nicolas Melissas, 2009. "On Bid Disclosure in OCS Wildcat Auctions," Working Papers 0905, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    12. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "La naturaleza cíclica de los flujos norte-sur de inversión extranjera directa," Research Department Publications 4318, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 2008/100, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Daniel Navia Simon, 2004. "Determinants And Impact Of Financial Sector Fdi To Emerging," International Finance 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Daniel Navia Simon, 2006. "Why Banks go to Emerging Countries and What is the Impact for the Home Economy? A Survey," Working Papers 0602, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    16. Sandra Lizarazo & Jose Maria Da-Rocha, 2009. "Money, Credit and Default," Working Papers 0908, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    17. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2015. "Impact of international monetary policy in Uruguay: a FAVAR approach," Documentos de trabajo 2015003, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    18. Steven Brakman & Gus Garita & Harry Garretsen & Charles van Marrewijk & Charles van Marrewijk, 2008. "Unlocking the Value of Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 2294, CESifo.
    19. Charles van Marrewijk & Gus Garita, 2008. "Countries of a Feather flock together," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-067/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 Sep 2008.
    20. Carlos Rodríguez & Ricardo Bustillo, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Business Cycle: New Insights after the Great Recession," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(2), pages 136-153.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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