IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ice/wpaper/wp93.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A financial conditions index for Iceland

Author

Listed:
  • Eysteinn Einarsson
  • Stella Einarsdottir
  • Tomas Dan Halldorsson
  • Vedis Sigridur Ingvarsdottir

Abstract

In this paper we remedy the lack of formalized relations between financial health and economic activity via a Financial Conditions Index for Iceland (FCI). We use a broad spectrum of financial information including price, spread, volatility and quantity variables, for the period 2002-2023. Variable selection is in line with broad consensus in the relevant literature. In addition, we include variables that are shown to have prediction properties vis-à-vis growth of real GDP over the horizon of two and four quarters ahead. The FCI is constructed using principal component analysis and is normalized such that a positive value indicates that financial conditions are looser than the historical average, while a negative value suggest that financial conditions are tighter than the historical average. We show that fluctuations and extreme events in historical real economic activity is captured by the FCI, implying that it is potentially a leading indicator of GDP developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Eysteinn Einarsson & Stella Einarsdottir & Tomas Dan Halldorsson & Vedis Sigridur Ingvarsdottir, 2023. "A financial conditions index for Iceland," Economics wp93, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    • Handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp93
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cb.is/library/Skraarsafn---EN/Working-Papers/Working%20Paper_93_A%20financial%20condistions%20index%20for%20Iceland.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q IV), pages 17-51.
    2. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke, 2018. "The Real Effects of Disrupted Credit: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 251-342.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Monica Billio & Anna Petronevich, 2017. "Dynamical Interaction between Financial and Business Cycles," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01692239, HAL.
    3. Mundra, Sruti & Bicchal, Motilal, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and financial accelerator: Evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    4. Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2022. "The Euro Area credit crunch conundrum: Was it demand or supply driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    6. Levieuge, G. & Lucotte, Y. & Pradines-Jobet, F., 2019. "Central banks’ preferences and banking sector vulnerability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 110-131.
    7. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2022. "Predictable Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 863-921, April.
    8. Zabavnik, Darja & Verbič, Miroslav, 2021. "Relationship between the financial and the real economy: A bibliometric analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 55-75.
    9. William Gatt, 2018. "Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    10. Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
    11. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    12. Enrico Perotti & Magdelena Rola-Janicka, 2019. "Funding Shocks and Credit Quality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-060/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2022. "Growing differently? Financial cycles, austerity, and competitiveness in growth models since the Global Financial Crisis," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 1314-1341, July.
    14. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    15. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    16. Yan Carrière-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2023. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 509-537, June.
    17. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. Kilinc, Mustafa & Tunc, Cengiz, 2019. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 505-528.
    20. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Mr. Thierry Tressel & Ms. Rima A Turk, 2018. "Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2018/099, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Central Bank of Iceland (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedgvis.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.