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Missing Links in Multiple Trade Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Rachele Foschi

    (IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca)

  • Massimo Riccaboni

    (IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca)

  • Stefano Schiavo

    (School of International Studies and Department of Economics and Management, University of Trento)

Abstract

In this paper we develop a network model of international trade which is able to replicate the concentrated and sparse nature of trade data. Our model extends the preferential attachment (PA) growth model to the case of multiple networks. Countries trade a variety of goods of different complexity. Every country progressively evolves from trading less sophisticated to high-tech goods. The probability to capture more trade opportunities at a given level of complexity and to start trading more complex goods are both proportional to the number of existing trade links. We provide a set of theoretical predictions and simulative results. A calibration exercise shows that our model replicates the same concentration level of world trade as well as the sparsity pattern of the trade matrix. Moreover, we find a lower bound for the share of genuine missing trade links. We also discuss a set of numerical solutions to deal with large multiple networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachele Foschi & Massimo Riccaboni & Stefano Schiavo, 2013. "Missing Links in Multiple Trade Networks," Working Papers 5/2013, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Sep 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:ial:wpaper:5/2013
    as

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    File URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/1658/1/EIC_WP_5_2013.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roc Armenter & Mikl?s Koren, 2014. "A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2127-2151, July.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9771 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guan, Qing & An, Haizhong, 2017. "The exploration on the trade preferences of cooperation partners in four energy commodities’ international trade: Crude oil, coal, natural gas and photovoltaic," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 154-163.
    2. Guan, Qing & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Huang, Shupei & Li, Huajiao, 2016. "Estimating potential trade links in the international crude oil trade: A link prediction approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 406-415.
    3. Liu, sen & Dong, Zhiliang, 2019. "Who will trade bauxite with whom? Finding potential links through link prediction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multiple Networks; Trade Networks; Preferential Attachment; Missing Trade; Innovation and Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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