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Global Imbalances and the Paradox of Thrift

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  • W. Max Corden

    (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne)

Abstract

Global imbalances refer to current account surpluses and deficits. This is a form of international intertemporal trade, and the neoclassical approach suggests that there are gains from trade, and hence there may be no problem created by global imbalances. This paper presents qualifications to this argument. A crucial concept is the "return journey", namely the need for borrowers to pay interest (or dividends) and eventually to be able to repay. Thus savings must lead to investment, which provides the future resources to enable the return journey. If borrowing is used to finance current consumption, wars, or unwise ("unfruitful") investment, such as excessive housing construction, the result will be a crisis. In this way the high net savings of some countries actually led to the recent crisis. This is a new version of Keynes’ “paradox of thrift” The central issue on which this paper focuses is the failure of high net savings by the “savings glut” countries to lead to fruitful investment in other countries, both in the United States and in developing countries. Hence a crisis was caused by the lack of provision for the return journey.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Max Corden, 2011. "Global Imbalances and the Paradox of Thrift," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n20, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2011n20
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    File URL: http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/working_paper_series/wp2011n20.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    2. Martin Wolf, 2008. "Comments On ‘The Global Imbalances: What Is The Problem?’, The 2007 Wincott Lecture, Given By Max Corden," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 59-62, June.
    3. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
    4. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2010. "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9111.
    5. Corden, W. Max., 1997. "Trade Policy and Economic Welfare," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198775348.
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    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l564n09r8 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, 2012. "Global Imbalances in a World of Inflexible Real Exchange Rates and Capital Controls," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 319-340, December.
    3. Körner, Finn Marten, 2011. "An equilibrium model of 'global imbalances' revisited," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 33/2011, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l564n09r8 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Mario Amendola & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Francesco Saraceno, 2012. "Production Process Heterogeneity, Time to Build, and Macroeconomic Performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 263-294.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global imbalances; paradox of thrift; financial crisis; instability of capital flows; world savings glut; quantitative easing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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