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Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries

Author

Listed:
  • László Mátyás

    (Central European University, Hungary, Budapest University of Economics, Hungary)

  • László Kónya

    (Victoria University, Australia)

  • Mark N. Harris

    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne and Central European University, Hungary)

Abstract

The gravity model has long been used for modelling and predicting trade flows. This paper generalises the gravity model allowing for proper representation of local and target country effects and also the business cycle. The new approach is based on a panel data framework (instead of a simple cross sectional or time series approach) where the additional information available from using both types of dat a (i. e. cross sectional and time series) is utilised to properly model all the specific effects. The model is applied to a panel of APEC countries.

Suggested Citation

  • László Mátyás & László Kónya & Mark N. Harris, 2000. "Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n05, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2000n05
    as

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    File URL: http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/working_paper_series/wp2000n05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    2. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, May.
    3. Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-892, December.
    4. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-495, August.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
    6. Matyas, L. & Konya, L. & Harris, M.N., 1997. "Modelling Export Activity in a Multicountry Economic Area : The APEC Case," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/97, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Brad Christerson, 1994. "World Trade in Apparel: An Analysis of Trade Flows Using the Gravity Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 17(2), pages 151-166, August.
    8. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Petr Polak & Nikol Polakova & Anna Tlusta, 2020. "How Bad Are Trade Wars? Evidence from Tariffs," Working Papers 2020/15, Czech National Bank.
    2. Sophie Chauvin, 2001. "Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade," Working Papers 2001-07, CEPII research center.
    3. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 671, Econometric Society.
    4. Shinyekwa, Isaac & Othieno, Lawrence, 2013. "Comparing the Performance of Uganda’s Intra-East African Community Trade and Other Trading Blocs: A Gravity Model Analysis," Research Series 150227, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    5. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381.
    6. Michida, Etsuyo & Atici, Cemal & Kojima, Michikazu, 2011. "Does Quality Matter in the Iron and Scrap Trade?," IDE Discussion Papers 282, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    7. Shinyekwa, Isaac & Lawrence, Othieno, 2013. "Comparing the Performance of Uganda’s Intra-East African Community Trade and Other Trading Blocs: A Gravity Model Analysis," Research Series 159667, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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