Zwei Jahre Corona-Pandemie: Die deutsche Wirtschaft zwischen Krisenstimmung und Erholung – Ein Vergleich der Jahre 2019 und 2021 – Ergebnisse des IAB-Betriebspanels

"Drawing on the latest wave of the IAB Establishment Panel for the year 2021, it is possible to obtain detailed insights into the changes in business activities of establishments over the course of the Corona pandemic. Important insights into the economic situation of establishments during the second year of the Corona pandemic can be derived from the comparison with the year 2019, the year immediately before the start of the Corona pandemic, but also from the comparison with the year 2020 which saw a widespread decline in business activity. Even though employment growth was still slow in 2021, there was a positive development in some important economic sectors or at least no further deterioration compared to 2020. This suggests that establishments have been able to adapt to the changing economic environment and that the level of uncertainty has decreased. This is also demonstrated by a slightly lower share of establishments declaring that the Corona pandemic threatened their existence compared to 2020. A positive effect is that the average employment growth rate in 2021 exceeded the growth rate in 2020, resulting from an increase in the rate of staff inflows and a continuing low rate of staff outflows. In 2021, this trend also holds for skilled workers, whereas in the previous year, the share of establishments that demand skilled workers as well as the number of needed skilled workers had fallen sharply. In the following year 2021, the demand for skilled labour and for vocational training graduates increased again significantly. Between 2019 and 2020, both the share of establishments providing further training and the participation rate in training had fallen dramatically, while there were fewer changes in further training between 2020 and 2021. However, only a few indicators could reach the level of 2019 in 2021. One reason might be the fact that in 2021 almost half of all establishments were negatively affected by the pandemic and more than one in five establishments were even confronted with strong negative economic effects. Especially establishments that were affected negatively by the crisis had to deal with a variety of problems. For example, these negatively affected establishments were increasingly forced to use short-time work and they had to struggle with a decline in employment. Both, the share of establishments with staff inflows, the employment growth rates and the expected growth in employment for 2022 were lower than the average of all adversely or severely adversely affected establishments. The same also applies for labour productivity, provision of further training, and the expected business volume development for 2021. In addition, small establishments with less than ten employees were struggling with the economic situation. In 2021, these small establishments faced the highest share of all establishments that were adversely affected by the Corona pandemic. These small establishments had a negative employment growth rate compared to 2019 and the highest vacancy rates for skilled labour positions. Furthermore, the retention rates of training graduates were also lower among small establishments than among larger establishments. By contrast, large establishments fared comparatively well in the Corona pandemic. This is evident from the increased level of employment within these establishments. Among all sectors, first and foremost, accommodation and food services were most severely affected by the Corona pandemic. However, other services were also negatively affected. For both industries, the cause is likely to be the protective measures needed to face the Corona pandemic. Moreover, in the accommodation and food service sector, the existence of a particularly large number of establishments was threatened and the use of short-time work were most widespread. Furthermore, compared to 2019, in 2021 these industries faced a sharp reduction in staff inflows, below-average employment growth rates, a low and sharply reduced demand for skilled workers and, particularly for accommodation and food services, remarkably low levels of further training activities. Overall, the outlook for future development is rather positive. In the survey year 2021, over 80 percent of all German establishments expected employment levels to remain roughly the same or even increase by June 2022. Three quarters of all establishments in Germany expected positive or at least unchanged business volumes in 2021. With regard to the use of home office, only a few companies wanted to return to the status quo ante. This is because the majority of establishments wanted to maintain or even expand the home office options that were greatly expanded as a result of the pandemic, even after the end of the Corona pandemic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))