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A note on export redirection: Evidence following the onset of the war in Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Hutter, Christian

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Stepanok, Ignat

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg)

Abstract

"The war in Ukraine triggered a global trade shock, with German exports to Russia also collapsing abruptly. Using this break, we analyse whether the exports were redirected to other destinations. We divide the world market into three regions: domestic, eurozone, and the rest of the world (ROW). In a panel model of German industries, we find that higher export exposure to Russia meant lower sales to the ROW after the war began. This was offset by higher sales in the eurozone and domestic markets. The effects occurred quickly but later receded. We find no production decline due to the trade shock." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Hutter, Christian & Stepanok, Ignat & Weber, Enzo, 2023. "A note on export redirection: Evidence following the onset of the war in Ukraine," IAB-Discussion Paper 202307, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202307
    DOI: 10.48720/IAB.DP.2307
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    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Russland ; Ukraine ; Welt ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Außenhandel ; Auswirkungen ; Eurozone ; Export ; Exportabhängigkeit ; Exportquote ; Absatzentwicklung ; Krieg ; Produktionsentwicklung ; verarbeitendes Gewerbe ; Zielgebiet ; 2021-2022;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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