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QuBe-Bevölkerungsprojektion für die Kreise und kreisfreien Städte Deutschlands

Author

Listed:
  • Studtrucker, Maximilian

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Kalinowski, Michael

    (BIBB)

  • Schneemann, Christian

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Zika, Gerd

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has produced a new population projection for long-term development up to the year 2050 as part of the long-term qualification and occupation projections (www.QuBe-Projekt.de). In addition to updated population figures at the federal level, a projection for the 401 districts within Germany is determined for the first time. This regional QuBe population projection differs from existing projections in particular by distinguishing between persons with and without German citizenship. The distinction in terms of origin facilitates a more precise projection, as it allows for the inclusion of differences in birth rates and migration flows. As the first population projection, the QuBe population projection also considers the changes in migration patterns within Germany caused by the Corona pandemic and the war against Ukraine. Our results show that, in addition to an aging population, the trend toward urbanization is intensifying the population decline in rural areas and especially in eastern Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Studtrucker, Maximilian & Kalinowski, Michael & Schneemann, Christian & Söhnlein, Doris & Zika, Gerd, 2022. "QuBe-Bevölkerungsprojektion für die Kreise und kreisfreien Städte Deutschlands," IAB-Discussion Paper 202219, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202219
    DOI: 10.48720/IAB.DP.2219
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Kubis, 2022. "Parität zwischen Vakanzen und Arbeitslosen am deutschen Arbeitsmarkt fast erreicht [Parity in the German Labour Market Nearly Achieved]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(9), pages 680-682, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Pandemie ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Ausländer ; Auswirkungen ; Bevölkerungsprognose ; Binnenwanderung ; Einwanderung ; Geburtenhäufigkeit ; Inländer ; Krieg ; Landflucht ; Landkreis ; Lebenserwartung ; Altersstruktur ; BIBB/IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen ; Stadt ; Urbanisierung ; 1991-2050;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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