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Fertility and Marriage in Kazakhstan's Transition Period: Implications for Social Security Policy

Author

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  • Becker, Charles M.
  • Seitenova, Ai-Gul S.

Abstract

Seven years ago, Kazakhstan embarked on a dramatic reform of its pension and social security system in order to move from an unsustainable public defined benefit ("solidarity") system to one of defined mandatory contributions (accumulative system). While much has been written on the financial implications for individual contributors, and on macro budgetary impacts, there has been no examination of how changing demographic structure is likely to affect the size of vulnerable pools. This paper explores the impact of these changes, and links demographic structure to economic performance. Focusing on changes in nuptiality (marriage) and fertility, we conclude that demographic structural shifts will increase overall system risk, but that current trends are favorable.

Suggested Citation

  • Becker, Charles M. & Seitenova, Ai-Gul S., 2005. "Fertility and Marriage in Kazakhstan's Transition Period: Implications for Social Security Policy," Discussion Paper 261, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:piedp1:261
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    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/14262/pie_dp261.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Becker, Charles M. & Hemley, David D., 1998. "Demographic change in the former Soviet Union during the transition period," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 1957-1975, November.
    2. Becker, Charles & Paltsev, Sergey V., 2004. "Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in the Former USSR: Social Transfers in the Kyrgyz Republic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 1849-1870, November.
    3. Tatibekov, Bolat L., 2004. "Peculiarities of Demographic Processes and Labor Markets Development during the Transition Period in Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper 215, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • P35 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Public Finance
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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