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The Multi-Sector Business Cycle Model and Aggregate Shocks: An Empirical Analysis

Author

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  • Abe, Naohito
  • 阿部, 修人
  • アベ, ナオヒト

Abstract

This paper discusses the applicability of a multi-sector business cycle model to the Japanese economy. Through dynamic factor analysis, output fluctuations are decomposed into aggregate and sectoral shocks. It is shown that independent sectoral shocks are more significant than common shocks, which conclusion is consistent with the model proposed by Long and Plosser (1983). In addition, the paper reveals that the importance of aggregate shocks increased during the so-called "bubble" period of the late 1980's.

Suggested Citation

  • Abe, Naohito & 阿部, 修人 & アベ, ナオヒト, 2002. "The Multi-Sector Business Cycle Model and Aggregate Shocks: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper 117, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:piedp1:117
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-336, May.
    2. Shigeyuki Hamori & Shin-Ichi Kitasaka, 1997. "The characteristics of the business cycle in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(9), pages 1105-1113.
    3. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1990. "Sources of output fluctuations in the United States during the inter-war and post-war years," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 523-551, October.
    4. Norrbin, Stefan C & Schlagenhauf, Don E, 1991. "The Importance of Sectoral and Aggregate Shocks in Business Cycles," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(2), pages 317-335, April.
    5. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1988. "An inquiry into the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-70, July.
    6. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    7. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-380, June.
    8. Michael Horvath, 1998. "Cyclicality and Sectoral Linkages: Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 781-808, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kumano, Yusuke & Muto, Ichiro & Nakano, Akihiro, 2014. "What explains the recent fluctuations in Japan’s output? A structural factor analysis of Japan’s industrial production," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 135-153.
    2. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Kwon, Hyeog Ug, 2015. "Do technology shocks lower hours worked? – Evidence from Japanese industry level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 138-157.
    3. Tsutomu Miyagawa & Yukie Sakuragawa & Miho Takizawa, 2005. "Productivity and the Business Cycle in Japan -Evidence from Japanese Industry Data -," Discussion papers 05022, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic factor analysis; Aggregate shocks; Business-cycle models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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